Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) has gained on Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) one year out from Arizona‘s 2026 gubernatorial election, according to a new poll showing the incumbent ahead by only one point.
The new poll suggests that next year’s general election will be highly competitive, especially given Turning Point USA‘s support for Biggs in the race.
Hobbs is statistically tied with Biggs and another Republican challenger in Friday’s Emerson College poll. The governor sits at 44%, compared to the congressman’s 43%. A one-point lead is also true for Hobbs in her hypothetical matchup with conservative attorney Karrin Taylor Robson, with a 43-42% margin.
When matched with Hobbs, Biggs and Robson remain within the poll’s 3.3% margin of error as both vie for the GOP nomination. The Republican candidates are both endorsed by President Donald Trump, who couldn’t decide between the two, calling them both “fantastic” contenders against Hobbs.
The GOP nomination will likely be secured by Biggs, who received 50% support among 381 Arizona Republican primary voters who answered the Emerson College survey. By contrast, only 17% of the respondents backed Robson in the primary.
Biggs has another advantage: He was endorsed by TPUSA co-founder Charlie Kirk in May. Kirk was fatally shot in September. In the two months since his death, the conservative organization’s platform has substantially grown.
“Very honored to have the endorsement of [Kirk] and [Turning Point Action] for Arizona Governor!” Biggs posted on May 16. “We are going to reclaim Arizona greatness and bring our state back to what it should be.”
The Washington Examiner contacted TPUSA for comment on its recent efforts in the gubernatorial race following Kirk’s assassination.
TPUSA’s influence was tested last week in a municipal Arizona election, which saw Mesa City Councilwoman Julie Spilsbury lose her seat to Dorean Taylor in a recall vote. Despite her affiliation with the Republican Party, Spilsbury endorsed former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) in the 2024 elections. Meanwhile, Taylor’s campaign was heavily promoted by TPUSA because of the Republican candidate’s strong conservative values.
The high-profile endorsement likely contributed to Taylor’s victory over Spilsbury. However, local Republican activist Tyler Montague said the challenger’s lead should have been higher than four points in a city already strongly conservative.
“It actually wasn’t that impressive of a win given the amount of resources they dumped into it,” Montague told the Arizona Capitol Times. “Dumping that amount, they underperformed, compared to what you would think that they should be able to do.”
Nonetheless, TPUSA took a victory lap as the results rolled in on Election Day.
TURNING POINT SHOWS INFLUENCE PERSISTS AFTER KIRK ASSASSINATION WITH MESA COUNCILWOMAN OUSTING
“One of the biggest wins in America tonight, RECALLING the leader of ‘Republicans for Harris’ Julie Spilsbury,” Tyler Bowyer, a leading member of TPUSA and its political arm, wrote on X while congratulating Taylor.
In August, Bowyer said among TPUSA’s priorities in “routing out the garbage” in Arizona were recalling Spilsbury, winning the GOP gubernatorial primary for Biggs, and defeating the state’s Democratic triplex led by Hobbs.