With Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) dropping out of the primary race and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley practically clinging to the ropes with a pair of weaponized stilettos, the most likely outcome is now almost certain: Former President Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 election.
Now that conservatives have a single candidate to rally behind, the real work begins with one fundamental question: How do we win in 2024?
Because, contrary to the relentless, cultlike propagandizing of right-wing figures on social media, we’re not a silent majority whose victory is guaranteed by Trump’s mere nomination.
The reality is we’re a movement that has floundered and failed in every election since the historic upset of Hillary Clinton on Nov. 8, 2016. In 2018, the Democrats experienced the largest gain in the House since the aftermath of the Watergate scandal. In 2020, Trump lost the presidency, and the GOP lost control of the U.S. Senate after two disastrous runoff elections in Georgia. And in 2022, the promised red wave never materialized.
Let alone the GOP’s abject failure to plan for the legislative battles that occurred following the reversal of Roe v. Wade or the voluntary and utterly pointless descent of the House into chaos following Trump fanboy Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-FL) self-serving decision to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
So, we must ask again: How do we win in 2024?
To avoid a repeat of 2018, 2020, 2022, and almost everything in between, Trump and the conservative movement that will rally behind him to unseat President Joe Biden must answer three key questions.
The first relates to the fact that too many people hate Trump more than they love or hate almost anything else.
Perhaps the biggest failing of the so-called MAGA movement is the assumption that their adoration of Trump is a universal feeling. It is not.
Yes, much of this is down to shameless and outrageous propaganda from the Democratic Party and the legacy media, as well as the general feeling of discomfort toward Trump’s infamous “mean tweets.” But that doesn’t change the fact that the number of people who dislike or despise Trump far outweighs those who are in some ways favorable.
Opinion polls put Trump’s favorability at 42.8%. Yes, this beats Biden today by over 2 points, but we are still months away from an election, and the anti-Trump propaganda machine has yet to hit second gear.
How do the Trump campaign and conservative movement plan to address this?
The second relates to a stunning lack of a solid strategy for dealing with the alleged voter fraud that was supposedly responsible for Trump’s defeat in 2020. Either the accusations of fraud were unfounded, which raises its own questions, or the accusations of fraud were genuine, in which case: What is Trump planning to do to prevent the election from being “stolen” again?
Finally, what about the Democratic Party’s shadow candidate?
It’s obvious that Biden’s mental decline has not only continued but accelerated since his election victory in 2020. Despite seemingly endless vacations, the man is practically unrecognizable, and even his own party must be concerned that in a geriatric foot race between Biden and Trump, Trump would leave Biden in the dust.
Enter Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), the man who is obviously waiting in the wings to replace Biden if necessary.
It’s one thing running against Biden, who can’t tell the difference between his own wife and a bowl of cherry jello. It’s another to run against a candidate such as Newsom if he were to enter the race within just weeks of the election.
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Is Trump ready to run against Biden’s late replacement?
Trump must win in 2024. But to do so, he has to do more than preach to the choir. If he and his team fail to address these three questions, the GOP (and therefore the country) will only continue a yearslong losing streak.
Ian Haworth is a columnist, speaker, and host of “Off Limits.” You can follow him on X at @ighaworth. You can also find him on Substack.