Nikki Haley doesn’t have a real path to win the nomination
Zachary Faria
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Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley appears to be gaining momentum to challenge Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) as the top alternative to former President Donald Trump in the 2024 GOP primary. But a closer look at the polls shows that whatever Haley is doing is not going to lead to her winning the nomination and that DeSantis remains the only candidate positioned to challenge Trump.
Haley no doubt has a favorable position right now. Moderate New Hampshire is the second primary contest, and her home state of South Carolina is the third. She’s polling in second place in both behind Trump and ahead of DeSantis. Combine that with her taking over Sen. Tim Scott’s (R-SC) third-place numbers in Iowa, and you can see why there is so much talk of a Haley surge.
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But a look at the temperature of the GOP electorate shows that this won’t translate to a winning formula for Haley, whether she supplants DeSantis or if Trump’s vulnerabilities start to tank his numbers. A Messenger/HarrisX poll found that 36% of Republicans would back DeSantis if Trump were not running, with Haley at just 12%. Among voters’ second choices, DeSantis is the most popular at 29%, while Haley is tied for third (with Trump, behind Vivek Ramaswamy) at 10%.
Quinnipiac’s poll highlights the reason clearly. DeSantis is rated favorable by 64% of Republicans, while Haley is rated favorable by 40%. Simply put, DeSantis is more popular among Republicans than Haley, but those same Republicans who like DeSantis are currently choosing Trump. Haley is not even on their radar, winning her own pocket of the party but offering no real threat to Trump going forward.
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Even Trump knows it, which is why his team is quite literally promoting Haley attack ads against DeSantis. Haley is making it a real fight for second place, but second place is her ceiling. The GOP nominee will be Trump or DeSantis because those are the two who are far and away more liked by Republican voters.
With the primaries slowly approaching, we are facing the very real dilemma that Haley’s poll numbers in the early states justify her continued presence in the race but only serve to help Trump. Wish casting from some conservative pundits aside, there is no path for Haley to beat Trump. DeSantis is the only one who can pose the challenge, but Haley’s campaign is yet another hurdle on that increasingly treacherous path.