DeSantis won the debate in the only way that matters

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Election 2024 Debate
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finishes an interview with Sean Hannity in the spin room after a Republican presidential primary debate hosted by FOX News Channel Wednesday, Aug. 23, 2023, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash) Morry Gash/AP

DeSantis won the debate in the only way that matters

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There is a wide range of opinions on who won the first GOP presidential debate, but it turns out that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) won in the only metric that matters.

According to data from the Washington Post, FiveThirtyEight, and Ipsos, 29% of GOP voters think that DeSantis won the first debate, the highest mark of any candidate. He also had the highest average grade from GOP voters for his performance. More importantly, DeSantis increased his share of possible voters, with 67.5% saying they are considering voting for him after the debate, an increase from the 63% considering him before it.

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That mark gives DeSantis the largest share of possible voters, with former President Donald Trump dropping from 66.2% consideration to 61.4%. No other candidate is being considered by more than 47% of GOP primary voters.

The most telling result came in the net favorability ratings. DeSantis’s net favorability increased by 7 points, and his unfavorable number actually declined. The two candidates that have been most hyped to knock DeSantis out of his second-place spot both saw a decrease in net favorability, with Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) dropping 4 points and Vivek Ramaswamy dropping 9 points, both driven by spikes in their unfavorable ratings.

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More notably, Trump’s absence from the debate and the campaign trail are also beginning to have effects. Trump’s net favorability declined by 7 points after the debate, meaning that DeSantis has a higher net favorability (48 points to 24 points) and overall favorability (72% to 60%) than Trump.

DeSantis is still clearly in second place and has all the numbers you want to see going into Iowa with over four months to make up the ground on Trump. He didn’t need to pick fights in the debate because he has the most solid (and most recent) conservative record in the field. He used the debate to remind GOP voters of exactly that fact and came out of the debate with the highest ceiling of any candidate in the field, whether they participated in the debate or were notably absent.

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