President Donald Trump has spent much of the summer highlighting the success of the American economy. Rising markets. Low unemployment. Billions of dollars in new investment. New factories and expanding domestic production.
By many conventional measures, he has a case to make. Yet many Americans hear those achievements and ask a different question: If the economy is doing so well, why doesn’t it feel that way?
The problem with Trump’s economic message is not that the good news is untrue. It is that he too often speaks in the language of victory when millions of Americans are still waiting to feel the recovery.
Economists measure production. Governments measure growth. Investors measure returns. Families measure financial margin.
That margin — the money remaining after housing, groceries, transportation, utilities, insurance, and healthcare — is where prosperity becomes real. It determines whether a family can save, invest for retirement, or simply make it through the month without adding debt.
For many households, that margin was badly damaged during and after the pandemic.
Many of the largest expenses in a household budget rose together. Housing, insurance, groceries, utilities, and transportation all demanded more. Even families receiving raises often found their purchasing power struggling to keep pace, forcing decisions about what could wait, what could be reduced, and what they could no longer afford.
The surge in inflation has moderated, but that doesn’t mean the cost of living has returned to where it was. Lower inflation generally means prices are rising more slowly, not that the previous increases have disappeared.
Families are still living with the prices that already rose.
Trump does acknowledge affordability and high prices. He points to lower inflation, tax relief, lower prices in some categories, and other signs of improvement.
Those things matter. But progress is not victory.
History offers reason for optimism. America has repeatedly experienced periods when household expenses outran household incomes. Inflation, recessions, and other economic disruptions have widened that gap before. Over time, productivity and real wage growth have helped narrow it again.
The pathway from work to lasting security has been remarkably consistent:
Work. Real wage growth. Financial margin. Saving. Ownership.
A family living paycheck to paycheck cannot skip those steps. Without margin, there is little opportunity to save. Without savings, ownership becomes difficult. And without ownership, families have far less opportunity to participate in the long-term wealth created by a growing economy.
This is why Trump’s long-term growth strategy matters. Investment, manufacturing, domestic production, and business expansion can increase productivity and ultimately support higher real wages.
But families don’t live only in the long term. They live now.
America has a safety net for those facing genuine crisis. But another group can easily disappear from the economic conversation: working families who are getting by but cannot get ahead. They need breathing room.
Some administration policies are intended to provide it. Recent tax changes are designed to leave more income in the hands of working households, while targeted actions on food and other stubborn costs seek to relieve some immediate pressure.
None of that will make the post-pandemic price increases disappear.
The lasting answer must be sustained improvement in purchasing power — income growing faster than the ordinary cost of living. That is the economic story Trump should be telling.
Keep talking about investment, factories, employment, and growth. But speak just as directly to the family standing in the grocery aisle, wondering why ground beef costs so much more than they remember, or opening another insurance bill that has risen faster than their paycheck.
Tell them: “We hear you. We know you’re still catching up. Here is what we’re doing to help now. And here is how today’s economic strategy is intended to produce the real wage growth and opportunity you need tomorrow.”
Acknowledging the struggle doesn’t diminish the progress. It makes claims of progress more credible.
America has never promised equal outcomes. Its more enduring promise has been that ordinary work can become lasting security.
Trump has every reason to talk about progress. Investment matters. Employment matters. Markets matter. Lower inflation matters.
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But leadership requires knowing the difference between progress and victory.
Victory will not come when another economic indicator turns positive. It will come when more working Americans can pay today’s bills, retain enough financial margin to prepare for tomorrow, and once again feel that they are growing with the economy rather than trying to catch up to it.
Joe Palaggi is a writer and historian whose work explores the historical forces that shape American civic culture, religion, and public life. His essays have appeared in the Washington Examiner, the Hill, RealClearPolicy, and the Fulcrum. More of his work can be found at joepalaggi.com.