As a ceasefire with Iran moves into its second extension, what might come next for Iran, the United States, and the region?
The first question: Who is running Tehran?
The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has opened a power vacuum at the center of the Islamic Republic. His son Mojtaba has been described as a successor, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps appears to hold the decisive power. Khamenei held 36 years of factional balance within a single person, and whether Mojtaba is alive, dead, or capable of the same remains very much an open question. That uncertainty makes the regime more vulnerable.
The Guards control roughly half the economy and suppress dissent through aggressive internal security forces. Until now, a clear hierarchy kept these internal power structures broadly unified. Among these ranks the lines blur between fanatics, opportunists, and corrupt elites. The absence of a power vertical makes associated divisions harder to bottle up.
Another question? Whether the economy gives way before the internal divisions boil over.
Inflation now exceeds 50%, the Rial currency trades near 1.32 million to the Dollar, and ATM withdrawal limits have been reduced to roughly seven dollars. But the Iranian economy has lived for years under sanctions, inflation, and war. Will it be different this time as the U.S. embargo of Iranian oil exports continues?
We don’t know but neither does Tehran. Hence why the regime is so desperately trying to project strength. It knows the projection of its strength is now critical to its continued hold on power. The repression, corruption, and economic failures that defined the regime before the war remain and are felt more acutely now. But what nobody can yet read is whether and when the people will take to the streets, and whether the regime’s visible disarray hands the Iranian people an opening to liberate themselves. Much will depend on what Iran wins or loses in the talks now being held in Islamabad.
Of course, the nuclear question continues to loom large. It remains unlikely that the regime will give up the one capability guaranteeing its survival. Full dismantlement remains improbable. And what also of Iran’s missile and drone stockpile? Significant portions remain. The fate of the Strait of Hormuz adds another layer, how it reopens and under whose terms? The answer to this question will define the post-war regional order and determine who holds effective leverage over the world’s most consequential energy chokepoint. Finally, can Iran continue sustaining its proxy networks; spanning the Houthis in Yemen, Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. If not, what becomes of those networks without Tehran’s backing?
AMERICA’S ‘GROWING’ BLOCKADE OF IRAN IS ‘GOING GLOBAL’
Many of these questions can be decided in Islamabad, but others remain open to black swan events. And threading through all of this is the 2026 midterm clock, with the November Congressional elections approaching and the open question of whether any outcome registers as success for President Donald Trump and Republicans.
Especially if the Iranian regime remains standing.