Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan feels he has reason to be optimistic. He was bracing for the election of Vice President Kamala Harris. In his estimation, that would have been a continuity of U.S. policy of keeping Turkey at arm’s length. As far as Erdogan is concerned, the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House means a renewed opportunity to gloss over a myriad of that beleaguer the two NATO allies’ bilateral relationship.
That could certainly be true. Erdogan and Trump may stand a greater chance of hammering out deals. Still, Washington must recognize that it would be negotiating from a significant position of strength. If there is to be any meaningful engagement with Turkey, Washington should be explicit in its expectations.
Moreover, Erdogan may have to temper positive expectations of dealing with the incoming Trump administration. It was Trump who imposed sanctions on Turkey and kicked it out of the F-35 fighter jet program in 2019. Trump did so in response to Ankara’s stubborn insistence on purchasing the Russian S-400 missiles. This cost Turkey the ability to acquire a vital fifth-generation strategic weapons capability. Since 2019, Turkey has been too afraid to activate and deploy the S-400 missiles, fearing further U.S. sanctions. It is also terrified of divesting of them, worried about facing punitive measures from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ankara has also struggled to acquire new fighter jets to offset the loss of the F-35.
In effect, Erdogan cornered his country into an avoidable position of not having a modernized air force and an active air defense system. Despite such woes, Erdogan has done nothing to reverse course and address U.S. concerns over the S-400s. Turkey now faces continued and possibly new U.S. tariffs on its exports. Today, however, the Turkish economy is in a far weaker position.
Ravaged by ruinous unorthodox economic policies deployed by Erdogan, Turkey’s economy has been crippled by hyperinflation and falling personal incomes. Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek has been seeking foreign investment flows into the country since he took office in late 2023. The prospect of tariffs in the second Trump term is likely to mean lower exports for Turkey, further depressing its chances of economic recovery. But the matter that stands the highest chance of driving Ankara and Washington into acrimony is likely to be Erdogan’s continuing patronage of Hamas.
Trump’s foreign policy team is likely to be made up of staunch pro-Israel actors. The nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), a strong advocate for Israel, for the position of U.S. ambassador to the United Nations is an indication of that. The same could be said for the nomination of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) for secretary of state, Fox News host Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as U.S. ambassador to Israel. Rubio has been publicly critical of many of Erdogan’s policy positions and believes he is detrimental to and undermining U.S. security interests.
But Erdogan’s championing of Hamas is entrenched. Turkey is the only country inside the NATO alliance and, certainly, the only U.S. ally that openly embraces Hamas as a group of “resistance fighters.” While many U.S. allies have been openly critical of Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon, none have embraced Hamas in quite the same way as Erdogan. The organization exists formally in Turkey and is allowed to recruit, fundraise, and engage in formal dialogue with the Turkish government. Erdogan has publicly taken meetings with senior leaders including Ismail Haniyeh, Khaled Meshaal, and Yahya Sinwar, and he has vowed continuing support for the organization.
This is hardly the only point of U.S.-Turkey divergence.
Turkey’s continuous efforts to attack the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are U.S. partners in the fight against the Islamic State group, is toxic in Washington. While Erdogan perceives the SDF as an extension of the separatist Kurdish movement in Turkey, whom he sees as terrorists, for Washington and Europe, the SDF is an indispensable partner in the fight to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State group. On many occasions, Turkish targeting of the SDF has come perilously close to hitting U.S. military personnel. But where Washington’s priority has been to negate an Islamic State group resurgence, Erdogan’s military operations against the SDF endanger that goal.
None of this should be tolerated, normalized, or accepted by Trump’s proposed national security team. The incoming Trump administration should be aware that Ankara has particular interests from Washington. It wants to be readmitted into the F-35 program, avoid further tariffs, and have sanctions lifted. There are items that could be negotiated if, and only if, Turkey meets specific demands. Turkey must unconditionally divest of its S-400s — ideally by donating some portion of its stockpile to the United States for study and the remainder to Ukraine to aid its war effort against Russia. Divestment of the S-400 is the surest indicator that Ankara intends to reengage as a genuine ally.
Erdogan must also terminate Turkey’s support of Hamas at all levels. This is a strategy being employed by Qatar, as it does not want to face retribution from the Trump administration. This is an opportunity for Turkey to dismantle Hamas’s infrastructure in Turkey and expel its operatives. At the very least, Washington should make it clear that it will not tolerate any move by Hamas to relocate to Turkey.
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Finally, Washington should take an uncompromising attitude to Erdogan’s war against the SDF. Turkey must be compelled to cease and desist all military operations against U.S. partners, which stand to undermine and degrade counterterrorism missions against the Islamic State group. The satisfaction of the three broad areas of divergence would present a platform where talks over rebuilding U.S.-Turkey ties could begin.
Turkey can’t simply be rewarded for nothing with the sale of F-35s. That has to be the end result of the rebuilding of trust, which Erdogan has wrecked in the last decade. The potential for Turkey to acquire strategic weapon systems from America is a discussion for a later date.
Sinan Ciddi (@SinanCiddi) is a nonresident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.