Pennsylvania may be the deciding state in the 2024 election. But what issues will decide whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris carries the Keystone State? Election onlookers should focus in on three key themes heading into the final stretch: energy, education, and voter enthusiasm.
Energy is easily one of the biggest concerns in Pennsylvania. Polling from my organization shows that 77% of voters say their energy costs have increased over the past two years, putting serious pressure on family finances. As a result, 78% of voters say that energy affordability is important to who they’ll support in the election.
The key to affordable energy in Pennsylvania comes down to one word: fracking. As the second largest natural gas-producing state in the country, Pennsylvania has long relied on fracking to keep energy costs low, both for homes and businesses. While some outsiders claim that fracking isn’t that popular in Pennsylvania, my organization has found that nearly eight in 10 voters in the state believe natural gas drilling is important to the state’s economy.
This puts Harris in a bind. As vice president, she owns the Biden-Harris administration’s legacy of a liquified natural gas export ban and a regulatory assault on fracking, which has hurt energy producers across the state and driven up costs. She can either defend her administration’s policies or deliver for Pennsylvania voters, but she can’t do both.
Trump doesn’t face the same choice, hence why other polls show that Pennsylvanians trust him more than Harris on fracking.
It’s a similar story with education. This issue is highly motivating to Pennsylvania voters, especially in black communities that dominate areas such as Philadelphia, as well as Latino communities that are rapidly growing across the state. Sadly, 91% of black students and 86% of Hispanic students in Pennsylvania aren’t proficient in math, while 84% and 79% aren’t proficient in reading, respectively.
These facts help explain why, according to Pew, education is the most important issue for black voters. But they don’t just want any education policy. My organization has found that 86% of black and 93% of Hispanic Pennsylvanians want education savings accounts that give families the freedom and funding to send their kids to better schools.
Once again, Trump and Harris have divergent approaches. While both candidates have prioritized outreach to black and Hispanic communities, Trump has largely focused on school choice policies, including education savings accounts. In a Philadelphia rally heard ’round the state, the former president declared: “I will support universal school choice.”
By contrast, the current vice president has come out against school choice, focusing instead on promises such as forgivable loans and legalizing marijuana — neither of which register on polls as to what black and Hispanic voters care about. They do care about education, which could be the sleeper issue in a state that was decided by barely 80,000 votes four years ago.
The third and final issue to watch is less about policy and more about the political reality of voter enthusiasm. Elections ultimately come down to turnout, and in Pennsylvania, both parties have to rally their voters both on Election Day and during early voting. More than 1.4 million people in the state have already voted, about 58% of whom are registered Democrats. But if past is prologue, Republicans are aiming to substantially close the gap come Election Day itself, when the party faithful are more likely to vote. And in a sign of momentum over the past week, Republicans netted 16,000 new voter registrations in the state.
Anything could happen between now and Election Day, but in an election year when voters are discontent with the status quo, Harris has struggled to distance herself from the unpopular policies of the last four years. Nearly 60% of Pennsylvanians say the state is on the wrong track, according to our polling, while nearly 70% say the entire country is headed in the wrong direction.
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Given the razor-thin margins of the 2016 and 2020 elections, the race may ultimately come down to Pennsylvania’s 1 million-plus registered independents. Recent surveys show that 5% are undecided, while 63% plan to wait until Election Day itself to vote.
One thing is certain: Pennsylvania is in the spotlight. The Keystone State is almost certainly the key to winning the White House. And energy, education, and voter enthusiasm will determine whether Harris or Trump carry the state — and with it, the country.
Andrew J. Lewis is president and CEO of the Commonwealth Foundation, Pennsylvania’s free-market think tank.