Deep-blue Maryland has been a stronghold for Democrats in general elections for decades. But with a popular former Republican governor running for an open Senate seat and eight House races, the Old Line State could spring a few surprises this November. In this series, Old Line, New Battles: Maryland feels the primary pinch, the Washington Examiner will look at the key figures and important issues six months until Election Day. Part one, below, will focus on how a November ballot measure regarding abortion could impact former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan’s campaign.
Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan’s biggest challenge in his attempt to flip retiring Sen. Ben Cardin’s (D-MD) seat may not be his Democratic opponent but instead a November ballot measure that seeks to enshrine abortion into the state’s constitution.
Abortion has plagued Republicans in races on the local and national levels since the overturning of Roe v. Wade returned abortion policy to the states. The issue has cost the party dozens of races, and in deep-blue Maryland, Hogan will likely have to contend with fears that a Republican majority in the Senate would vote for a national abortion ban.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokeswoman Amanda Sherman Baity argued that a “vote for Republican Larry Hogan is a vote to turn the Senate over to MAGA Republicans so they can pass a national abortion ban and push forward Republicans’ extreme policies” in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
Baity continued, “That’s a disqualifying agenda for Maryland voters.”
Hogan, whose entrance into the Senate race this year gave Republicans their best shot in decades to flip a seat in the Old Line State, has stated that while he is not a proponent of abortion personally, he would not support a national abortion ban. However, it is unclear if his stance will sway voters or if it will even reach them.
A poll from the Washington Post-University of Maryland released in March showed that while Hogan led Rep. David Trone (D-MD) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, the top two candidates in the Democratic primary race, voters preferred having a Democratic Senate.
“The specter of the U.S. Senate controlled by Republicans and the threat of a national abortion ban, which Republicans in Washington keep talking about doing, makes it a salient issue,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said.
The Democrat Hogan faces in the general election will be decided on May 14, when voters head to the polls to cast their ballot in the state’s primary races. Both Trone and Alsobrooks have come out in support of abortion rights.
Bannon predicted the winner of the Democratic primary will make abortion rights the “centerpiece of their attacks” against Hogan.
“He’s going to have to deal with [the attacks] whether he wants to or not, and he probably doesn’t want to,” Bannon said. “But he’s going to have to deal with it.”
Abortion constitutional amendment
Abortion is already legal in Maryland, but the state’s Democratic-controlled legislature voted to put the constitutional amendment on the ballot last year, putting the issue before voters as they head to the polls in November.
Democrats have seen success when abortion is on the ballot in states such as Ohio, Michigan, and California and have utilized the issue to mobilize voters.
Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe said while he doesn’t think that the issue of abortion sways voters’ decisions about a candidate, the “advantage” Democrats have when the issue is on the ballot is that it turns out votes for the Democratic Party.
As such, Roe said it was “safe” to assume that the abortion measure in Maryland would have a similar effect and would “turn out some percentage of those [voters] and that they’re going to vote Democrat probably across the board. And that’s the risk to Republicans like Hogan.”
When asked by the Washington Examiner about the constitutional amendment, Hogan did not say whether he supported the measure, saying he was “looking forward to engaging” on the issue after the May 14 primaries in which his Democratic opponent will be decided.
“That’s something that we’ll have plenty of time to talk about after the next 10 days of the primary,” Hogan said. “I’m looking forward to engaging on that issue and every other issue on the economy, on crime, on the border, and on both the state and the federal situation with respect to women’s reproductive health.”
In February, Hogan said he felt the measure wasn’t “really necessary,” citing the fact that abortion is legal in the state.
“There’s no threat to the protection of these rights in Maryland. It’s been — it’s already a law. Voters have already weighed in on it,” Hogan said during an interview on CNN’s Inside Politics. “I think the Democrats put this on the ballot to try to make it a political issue, and voters can make their decision on whether they think it’s important or not. But it doesn’t — it’s not going to change anything.”
Hogan campaign spokesman Blake Kernen said in a statement to the Washington Examiner that the “ballot measure codifies existing law Gov. Hogan upheld as governor, laws that are protected in Maryland today.”
“Gov. Hogan’s position is well known to Marylanders, having kept his promise to uphold state law on reproductive rights during his eight years in office and led Maryland in becoming the first state to provide over-the-counter birth control paid for by Medicaid,” Kernen said. “He has been on record opposing abortion bans for over 30 years and would vote against an abortion ban in the Senate.
“Since the start of this campaign, Gov. Hogan has been attacked by both the Right and the Left because he’s a threat to status quo politics as usual in Washington,” Kernen continued. “But the cookie-cutter attacks that work on typical Republicans don’t work on him because he is not a typical Republican. Marylanders know and trust his tested leadership on this issue and others.”
Hogan’s past veto as governor
Democrats have sought to elevate Hogan’s veto of a bill to allow nurse practitioners, nurse midwives, and physician assistants with training to perform abortions in Maryland, using it to attack Hogan’s record on abortion.
When he vetoed the legislation, Hogan wrote in a letter to Maryland Democratic House Speaker Adrienne Jones that the measure would endanger “the health and lives of women by allowing non-physicians to perform abortions.”
“These procedures are complex and can, and often do, result in significant medical complications that require the attention of a licensed physician,” Hogan continued. “The only impact that this bill would have on women’s reproductive rights would be to set back standards for women’s health care and safety.”
Hogan’s veto was ultimately overridden by Maryland’s legislature and went into effect in July 2022. Hogan then blocked funding that would have supported training for nonphysicians to perform abortions, a move that delayed the program from starting.
Bannon said the question of how abortion affects Hogan’s campaign is “whether he can dominate the campaign with a discussion of all the good things he did as governor or if the Democratic candidate is going to be able to dominate by attacking him for his veto of pro-choice legislation and his opposition to the constitutional amendment.”
Roe contended that having the constitutional amendment on the ballot may play in Hogan’s favor, saying it “gives voters the opportunity to vote on abortion and separate that from candidate considerations.”
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Hogan faces an uphill battle in his bid to flip Cardin’s Senate seat, a fact he acknowledges.
“I get it is a hurdle to overcome. We have not elected a senator since 1980 that was a Republican in the state. And there is a battle for control of the Senate — it’s not going to come down to the bluest state in America,” Hogan said during an interview with the Washington Examiner earlier this year.
Ramsey Touchberry contributed to this report.