Election forecaster Cook Political Report is moving New Hampshire’s Senate race to a “toss-up” prediction, good news for Republicans.
The rightward shift in the U.S. Senate race from a “leans Democrat” rating to a “toss-up” rating comes as Republican candidate and former Sen. John Sununu has gained momentum in recent general election polling against Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH). Cook Political Report is the second major election forecaster to shift the race to the right, following Inside Elections’s move to shift the race in early September.
“Republicans convinced a member of the most beloved political family in the state to run for Senate — former Sen. John E. Sununu — and both public and private polls show him in a closer-than-expected race with newly-minted Democratic nominee, 1st District Rep. Chris Pappas,” the Cook Political Report wrote in the assessment. “Even in a light blue state, the amount of money national Republicans have dedicated to this race is a flashing red light for Democrats.”
Sununu, one of Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s (R-SD) prized recruits of the 2026 election cycle, represented New Hampshire in the Senate from 2003 to 2009, when he was ousted by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). In a comeback bid nearly two decades later, Sununu is taking on Pappas to see who will replace Shaheen when she retires at the end of her term.
The state currently has an all-Democratic Senate delegation and voted for Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election by a 2.8 percentage point margin. However, the state has a Republican governor in Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH).
Sununu is endorsed by President Donald Trump, but the National Republican Senatorial Committee has embraced him as a candidate who can win independents in the New England state.
The Cook Political Report wrote in the race assessment that “the central question in the race is whether Sununu’s brand is enough to escape the anchor of a deeply unpopular President Donald Trump.”
Pappas has aimed to tie Sununu to Trump in his messaging, doing just that in his response to the shift of the race on Tuesday.
“Cook Political Report just changed the rating for our race to toss-up. That means this is a highly competitive contest,” Pappas said in a video on X. “I’m up against Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidate, John Sununu, who stands with him on the war in Iran, on higher prices, and on cuts to healthcare.”
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Sununu entered the race in 2025 without an endorsement from Trump, later earning the president’s backing in February. Sununu has highlighted his independent nature throughout the campaign trail, as his website states that he “strives to reflect the character of New Hampshire: independent, practical, and results-oriented.”
The Washington Examiner has reached out to Sununu and Pappas for comment.