The Cook Political Report on Thursday moved the high-profile Texas and Iowa Senate races from “lean Republican” to “toss-up,” reflecting the increasingly difficult terrain for Republicans in the midterm elections as the war in Iran and affordability issues weigh down the party.
Polls have indicated tight races in states President Donald Trump won three times, prompting a shift in ratings from the elections handicapper. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico will face scandal-ridden Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa.
“Even though, on paper, it should be extraordinarily difficult for Democrats to flip seats that Trump won by more than 13 points, it’s increasingly hard to ignore both public and private polling showing them to be more competitive than the Lean category reflects,” the Cook Political Report wrote.
Paxton’s litany of scandals could prove consequential in his matchup with Talarico. Paxton knocked longtime Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) out of the race this summer, despite Cornyn’s support from Senate Republican leadership.
“While Talarico remains right-side up in his favorables — at least so far — the deeply flawed Paxton is underwater by as much as double digits in some surveys and is notably underperforming even a generic Republican in GOP polling,” Cook wrote. “In addition to a bevy of public polls, private Republican polling has had the race tied for some time.”
While the most recent Emerson College poll has Paxton leading by 1 point, three other polls from July had Talarico leading between 2 and 4 points. Polling in Iowa also has shifted back and forth between Turek and Hinson in recent months.
Cook moved the Texas Senate race to a “toss-up” in 2018 when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) faced Beto O’Rourke, but Cruz narrowly prevailed.
The Paxton campaign said it isn’t buying the shift and that history will repeat itself.
“Every year, Democrats think they have a chance to turn Texas blue,” Paxton adviser Nick Maddux told the Washington Examiner. “And every year, the person they frame as their next great hope flails and loses. Talarico’s campaign will end the same way. The only poll that matters is November 3, when we prove Texas is red and will remain that way.”
The Washington Examiner contacted Talarico’s, Turek’s, and Hinson’s campaigns for comment.
Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats and defend critical states in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia to regain control of the Senate. Top pickup opportunities include Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio, but their chances of defending Michigan might have taken a dent after progressive Abdul el Sayed won the primary over the more moderate Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI).
FROM MAINE TO ALASKA, JOHNSON CRISSCROSSES COUNTRY DURING AUGUST RECESS
Cook also moved the Texas gubernatorial race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” and the Iowa gubernatorial race from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.”