Welcome to Thursday’s edition of Washington Secrets. We ask whether Sens. Rick Scott, Tom Cotton, and Todd Young have buyer’s remorse over their Massachusetts endorsement of a candidate who backs abortion up to birth. If they do, they aren’t saying. Plus, what is up with the polls in Arkansas? Have Democrats got a toehold in the Senate race? We break down the flawed polling methodologies that skew everything leftwards.
Will history remember Brian Shortsleeve, a Marine veteran and former venture capitalist who is competing to be the Republican nominee for the next governor of Massachusetts?
He is almost certain to lose his primary next week.
So will history remember the three senators who endorsed him? And do Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL), Tom Cotton (R-AR), and Todd Young (R-IN) endorse his radical pro-abortion stance?
They must have known what they were getting into when they picked Shortsleeve ahead of the favorite, Michael Minogue. Shortsleeve, after all, hailed from the Mitt Romney wing of the party, even if he has tacked to the right, embracing Donald Trump’s positions and adopting a hardline on immigration.
They might not have expected him to step up his abortion messaging, however. In May, after all three endorsed, Shortsleeve hit the issue hard, positioning himself as “the pro-choice candidate.”
“I am the pro-choice candidate. Mike Minogue is an anti-choice candidate,” he told WBV in May. “He does not support a woman’s right to choose. He will never win a state election in Massachusetts, period.”
Shortsleeve made a similar case in a series of interviews around that time.
Fast forward to last week, and the issue was back in the headlines.
Gov. Maura Healey (D-MA) signed a bill into law that will make it easier to obtain late-term abortions. Healey said it was designed to ensure that physicians could exercise appropriate judgment and that women could rely on doctors they trusted.
Conservatives described it as “dystopian” and said the new law would allow abortions right up until the moment of birth — except for Shortsleeve, who said he backed the changes.
“Brian Shortsleeve has been clear throughout this campaign that he is pro-choice and believes these deeply personal decisions should be made between a woman and her doctor,” said campaign spokesman Pat Nestor. “This legislation is largely consistent with protections already established under current Massachusetts law, and as governor, Brian would sign it.”
So what do Scott, Cotton, and Young make of it? All three have been vocal in their opposition to late-term abortion and underlined Shortsleeve’s right-wing credentials when they endorsed.
Cotton, after all, praised Shortsleeve as “a consistent, lifelong conservative.” Scott highlighted his “steadfast support of Republican candidates and conservative causes.”
Are they pulling their endorsements? Do they agree with his abortion stance? Secrets messaged their offices to find out.
Staff for Scott and Cotton did not respond. Young’s office directed Secrets to the campaign staff, who did not respond either.
Secrets suspects that they hope this all goes away next week, when Shortsleeve is likely to lose the primary. (A poll out two days ago suggests Minogue will romp to victory by a two-to-one margin.)
But some conservatives are keeping score.
“I would expect those senators to denounce their endorsement of a pro-late term abortion candidate,” one GOP strategist told Secrets.
It is all a reminder that abortion is far from a settled issue for Republicans, despite the Supreme Court throwing out Roe v. Wade in 2022.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, for example, has kept up a stream of warnings that the second Trump administration has abandoned traditional conservative anti-abortion principles in favor of “populism.”
And turning the issue over to the states may have triggered a patchwork approach and opened a whole can of worms.
READ MORE: INFANTICIDE IS BACK
What is going on with polling in Arkansas?
No sooner had Secrets brought you a reputable poll showing that no, Cotton was not facing a potential upset loss in Arkansas, than another crazy poll dropped.
This time, it is from Talk Business and Politics-Hendrix College. They asked 1,217 likely voters for whom they would vote if the U.S. Senate election were tomorrow. It found that first-time Democratic candidate Hallie Shoffner would get 47%, beating Cotton on 44%.
The first poll to suggest something odd was happening in a state that Trump won by 30 points came from 2040 Strategy Group, a progressive campaign firm. It found that Shoffner trailed the incumbent by just 3 points.
We knocked all of that into a cocked hat yesterday. Our friends at J.L. Partners, who nailed the 2024 presidential result, introduced a dose of reality with their poll, showing that Cotton actually still commanded a 16-point lead.
Against that background, we were sent a memo by GrayHouse polling that shreds the methodology behind not just the Hendrix College poll, but the string of disastrous surveys that have overestimated support for socialist candidates.
It points out that the latest poll may have the imprimatur of an academic institution, but it was crafted by Democratic activist Jay Barth, who has long understated Republican support in Arkansas. In 2024, they were 16 points off. In 2022, they were 18 points off.
The methodology is clearly off. It is summed up in a single line: “Responses collected by SMS text over two days, slightly weighted for ethnicity, education, gender and geography.”
Note there is no weighing to make sure that a representative number of Republicans and Democrats are included, or Trump or Kamala Harris voters.
“A 48-hour, text-only field reaches the fastest-responding and most politically engaged voters, and survey research consistently finds Democrats complete text-to-web surveys at higher rates,” writes Landon Wall, GrayHouse managing partner. “A weighting scheme that touches only demographics has no mechanism to correct for that.”
You can see where this is going. It’s not a huge leap to extrapolate to other polls that have suggested a massive surge in support for socialist candidates, only for them to lose or just sneak over the winning line on primary day. See, for example, Abdul el Sayed in Michigan.
It is all a useful reminder that your usual skepticism about polling should be heightened in a midterm year. And that’s even before we start to worry about fake polls and social experiments.
Who can he mean?
When you get fired for doing a spectacularly s***ty job at an agency, with your badge deactivated, building access revoked, and the full “you’re dead to us” package—or when you get passed over for Ambassadorships, Boards, or Commissions—because there are candidates who are actually far more qualified than you, please resist the urge to sprint to every media outlet that will platform your lying bull s***, and then falsely attack the people in the Presidential Personnel Office who are out here serving President Trump, the Administration, and the American people each and every day—Just take the L, and move on, LOSER
Thank you for your attention to this matter! 
That was Dan Scavino, one of Trump’s top aides, on X yesterday. So who is he talking about?
If you read the New York Times piece on Pete Hegseth’s wife, then you will have seen this quote: “It’s bonkers that a defense secretary would involve his wife in his sensitive official duties, including sharing details of an impending military operation, and face zero consequences.”
Step forward John Ullyot, who left the Pentagon as chief spokesman after three months working under Hegseth (as the New York Times delicately puts it).
Mystery solved.
Lunchtime reading
Trump considers a press secretary shakeup – picking a man: The speculation is still flowing. And no one knows anything. But this is fun, although completely undermined by suggesting that Natalie Harp could now be in the running! Spoiler, she’s not.
Florida school board at the center of culture wars loses conservative majority: Does it signify changing priorities for voters?
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