Two weeks after their respective primaries, Democratic nominee Abdul el Sayed is outperforming Republican nominee Mike Rogers in the latest poll for the competitive Senate race in Michigan.
El Sayed leads Rogers by 7 points among likely voters, less than three months before the general election, according to the new Susquehanna Polling and Research survey. The Democrat has 46% support, compared to his opponent’s 39%. Nine percent of voters who answered the survey said they are undecided, and 4% said they prefer another candidate.
The poll’s findings show el Sayed is successfully rallying the Democratic electorate in Michigan. There were concerns that he might struggle to consolidate support from moderate Democrats who voted for Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) in the Aug. 4 primary election, but the poll suggests those concerns may be unfounded come November.
El Sayed is leading Rogers 91% to zero percent with self-identified Democrats and 46% to 24% among independent and unaffiliated voters. He also polls well among Democrats who identify as progressive and those who do not, suggesting he may receive enough moderate votes to win the general election. Unsurprisingly, Rogers leads el Sayed 90% to 2% with Republicans.
Rogers has been trying to appeal to independents, saying they have a home with his campaign if they do not identify with el Sayed’s progressive beliefs.
Meanwhile, el Sayed has called Rogers a “corporate shill and a Donald Trump suck-up.” Rogers, a former congressman, is endorsed by President Donald Trump.
El Sayed has the advantage in Detroit and its surrounding areas, where he leads Rogers 62% to 24%.
Inflation and the economy are considered the most important issues facing Michigan voters. The Democratic nominee has a significant edge over the Republican nominee on those issues, with 47% to 38%.
Despite the Democratic candidate’s promising figures, el Sayed and Rogers are viewed more negatively than positively by most respondents. However, those who disapprove of Trump’s job performance and find both el Sayed and Rogers unfavorable lean more toward el Sayed as the preferred candidate.
A majority of the surveyed voters in Michigan disapprove of the president’s job performance.
While the latest poll is good news for el Sayed, there have been recent polling misses in certain races. In the Wisconsin governor’s race, for instance, socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong boasted a large lead in polls for the Democratic nomination until the primary election resulted in a narrow win for Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley.
Median Strategies, one of the pollsters showing a large lead for Hong, admitted to fabricating polls for multiple elections. The company drew attention this week after the Los Angeles Times reported the firm’s poll in the Los Angeles mayoral race was fake.
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In Michigan’s Senate race, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows el Sayed with a 0.7-point lead over Rogers, so the final election results may be closer than what one poll suggests. Both candidates are running to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), who has held the seat for two six-year terms.
Susquehanna Polling & Research surveyed 800 likely voters between Aug. 11 and 17. The pollster set the margin of error at 3.46 points.