The sudden death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) this weekend marks a shocking blow for Senate Republicans who leaned on his decades of experience and close relationship to the White House.
In the short term, it’s also complicating their already shaky whip count as leadership deals with a pile-up of legislative headaches, the most immediate of which is confirmation of President Donald Trump’s nominee for attorney general.
Republicans are expected to move quickly and could swear in a replacement for Graham sometime this week. South Carolina’s governor plans to announce who will serve out the remainder of his term on Monday, meaning there may only be a short lapse after Graham died of a “brief and sudden illness” attributed to heart disease.
But the vacancy, for now, means Republicans will be down to a 52-seat Senate majority that is functionally even slimmer. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), 84, has been hospitalized since June and given no indication as to when he might return. He said he cannot return “quite yet” per his doctor’s advice.
Their absence leaves Republicans little room for error as the Senate prepares to take up a sweeping defense bill that sets policy priorities for the Pentagon. Democrats have registered their opposition to that legislation over the war in Iran and are promising more votes to rein in the president’s authority as commander in chief.
The Senate offered a rare rebuke last month when one of the Democrats’ war powers resolutions passed, in part, because of McConnell’s hospitalization.
In terms of committee assignments, Graham’s death whittles Republicans down to a one-seat majority on the Judiciary Committee, where Todd Blanche is set to appear Wednesday for his attorney general confirmation hearing.
Blanche, who serves as acting attorney general, is expected to face universal opposition from Democrats, who cite his handling of the Epstein files and a since-scrapped “weaponization” fund. Two Republicans are also noncommittal, and their votes will be even more consequential in Graham’s absence.
Trump has recommended that Graham’s sister, Darline, take over his Senate seat for the remainder of the year. An August special primary election will determine who replaces Graham on the ballot for the regularly scheduled November election.
The single biggest impact of Graham’s death is the leadership vacuum it creates for congressional Republicans.
He was one of the party’s biggest defenders of an aggressive foreign policy and a key Senate liaison to the White House, forging a surprisingly close relationship with Trump that overcame enmity during his first term as president.
Logistically, Republicans will also have to replace him on the Budget Committee, where, as chairman, he ushered the Working Families Tax Cuts to passage last year and advocated another reconciliation bill focused on the White House’s request for Iran war funding.
In the next Congress, he was likely to chair the Judiciary Committee, and his death throws into question which of several senior Republicans will take over if they keep their Senate majority.
His death comes at a moment of growing tension between the Senate and the White House over the SAVE America Act, a sweeping election bill that cannot pass unless Republicans weaken the filibuster, something many centrists say is a nonstarter.
Elements of that legislation could be passed through reconciliation, effectively sidestepping Democratic opposition, but Trump has railed on lawmakers for considering a watered-down bill.
GRAHAM WAS ONE OF THE MOST INFLUENTIAL, IF UNLIKELY, LEADERS IN TRUMP’S WASHINGTON
On foreign policy, in particular, Graham’s absence will be felt as the White House asks for hundreds of billions in new Pentagon funding.
He died shortly after returning from a trip to Ukraine that he hoped would inject new momentum into a Russia sanctions bill that enjoys bipartisan support.