Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has overtaken Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the latest 2028 presidential odds on prediction market platform Polymarket, adding to speculation that the progressive New York Democrat could emerge as an early favorite for the party’s nomination.
Ocasio-Cortez and Rubio have both been floated as possible contenders for their respective parties’ 2028 presidential nominations, though both have sought to keep the focus on the 2026 midterm elections.
Ocasio-Cortez’s rise in the prediction markets comes as she faces growing speculation about a possible presidential bid. Vice President JD Vance said in June that he believes Ocasio-Cortez will be the leading Democratic candidate in 2028.
“I think it’s got to be AOC. I know that’s probably conventional wisdom,” Vance said during an interview on The Michael Knowles Show. Ocasio-Cortez has not ruled out a presidential campaign, though she has repeatedly emphasized that she is focused on the midterm elections.
“I’m focused on winning the midterms. I’m running for Congress right now,” Ocasio-Cortez told ABC’s This Week last week when asked whether she plans to run for president in two years.
“I haven’t ruled out the possibility. And I’m very humbled to the tremendous amount of support out there,” she added.
Other Democrats being floated as possible 2028 contenders include Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), former Vice President Kamala Harris, and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
Recent polling has also shown Ocasio-Cortez emerging as a formidable possible contender. A poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters conducted last month found 22% would support Ocasio-Cortez if the primary were held today, narrowly edging former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 21%.
RealClearPolitics’s polling aggregate, however, currently shows Harris leading the Democratic field by 12 points, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the early 2028 race.
On the Republican side, Vance and Rubio have emerged as two of the most frequently discussed possible contenders.
A report from the Washington Post alleged that President Donald Trump told donors that “at the end of the day, we need to elect JD.”
Trump denied endorsing Vance shortly after, saying, “I heard about it a little while ago. I think he’s great, but we’re way too early to even be thinking about that”
Trump suggested in May that Vance and Rubio could make a “dream team” during a White House event, though he stopped short of endorsing either for president.
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“That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstance,” Trump said. “But you know … I think it sounds like presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate.”
While speculation over the 2028 field continues to grow, party leaders in both parties remain largely focused on the 2026 midterm elections before making decisions about the next presidential race.