Texas Attorney General and Republican nominee Ken Paxton pushed ahead of his general election contender, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, in a new poll published Tuesday as the two face off in a highly contested U.S. Senate race.
A poll conducted by the University of Texas in collaboration with the Texas Politics Project showed Paxton gaining a +1 lead over Talarico, reversing the dynamic seen in polls released earlier this month that placed the Christian Democrat ahead by roughly 3 percentage points.
The contest was upended in May when Paxton defeated longtime Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the Republican primary runoff, ending Cornyn’s bid for a fifth term after President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton.
Paxton’s victory set the stage for a general election matchup between one of Texas Republicans’ most polarizing figures and a rising star in the Democratic Party.
Democrats view Talarico as the prime candidate to flip Texas blue, and he has substantial party backing. Earlier polling from the Texas Politics Project showed him leading both Cornyn and Paxton in hypothetical general-election matchups, fueling Democrats’ hopes that Texas might abandon its long GOP streak.
The latest survey, however, indicates Republicans have largely consolidated behind Paxton following the bruising primary. Paxton remains a favorite among the Republican base despite years of legal and political controversies, including an impeachment trial in the Texas Senate that ended with his acquittal and a securities fraud case that was resolved last year.
Paxton, 63, has portrayed Talarico, 37, as too liberal for Texas voters, calling him out on comments made about transgender people and being vegan despite Talarico not being vegan. Democrats, on the other hand, have focused on Paxton’s legal troubles and ethics controversies.
KEN PAXTON’S DEFENSE ATTORNEY ENDORSES JAMES TALARICO IN RACE FOR TEXAS SENATE SEAT
Earlier this month, one of Paxton’s former defense attorneys endorsed Talarico, arguing the attorney general’s conduct made him unfit for higher office, providing Democrats with additional ammunition as the general election campaign intensifies.
The race has already broken records for the amount of funding spent in the primaries alone, and is set to be one of the most expensive and dramatic races of the 2026 election cycle.