Democrats had a disappointing election night, but downballot candidates might have something to look forward to when they run again without Vice President Kamala Harris on the ticket.
An initial analysis from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found congressional candidates for competitive House seats overperformed Harris in the 2024 general election among Hispanic, black, and non-college-educated voters in counties within battleground districts.
While Republicans are hanging on to their slim majority in the House, some Democratic candidates, even if they did not win, overperformed Harris in key districts, some of which President-elect Donald Trump won.
In districts that Democratic members of Congress held that the DCCC invested money in to defend the seat, candidates overall overperformed Harris by an average of 2.7 percentage points.
In majority Hispanic districts, House candidates overperformed Harris by an average of 0.2%. For example, in the heavily Hispanic South Texas 34th Congressional District, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D-TX) won Cameron County by a narrow margin, but Harris lost it by 6 percentage points.
In majority black districts, congressional candidates overperformed Harris by an average of 1.4% points.
In districts with a significant number of Native American voters, which the DCCC counts as 10% or more registered voters who are Native American, candidates overperformed Harris by an average of 3.7 points.
In districts that are a majority suburban, House candidates overperformed Harris by an average of 2.1%. In Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke did not win her race, but she won 56.5% of the vote in La Crosse County, which was more than Harris, who won 53.9% of the vote.
Candidates in congressional districts with a largely non-college-educated population, which the DCCC categorizes as under 30% of registered voters having a college degree, overperformed Harris by an average of 2.4 points. Meanwhile, Trump won 56% of non-college-educated voters overall.
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“House Democrats held Republicans to a slim majority this election by overperforming with key demographics in virtually every corner of the country,” Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA), DCCC Chairwoman, said in a statement. “They did this by running substantive, authentic campaigns addressing local and pocketbook issues while rejecting divisive, partisan rhetoric.”
With five House seats still not called, Republicans currently hold 218 seats, and Democrats have 214 seats.