The slim majority that House Republicans eked out on Election Day is in danger after President-elect Donald Trump poached multiple lawmakers for his Cabinet.
So far, Trump has nominated Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Mike Waltz (R-FL), and Matt Gaetz (R-FL) to his incoming administration, the latter of whom has already announced his resignation from the House. Republicans are projected to claim 221 seats in the House, but with Waltz, Stefanik, and Gaetz vacating their seats, that dwindles their majority to 218 — causing some in the conference to grow wary of the prospect of an even thinner majority than the one they currently hold.
Part of the uncertainty comes as eight House races remain too close to call, the outcomes of which could give Republicans more or less breathing room in the next session of Congress.
Four of the eight races are projected to go to Republicans — the seats of Reps. John Duarte (R-CA), Michelle Steel (R-CA), Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK), and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA). The remaining four — the seats of Reps. Jim Costa (D-CA), Josh Harder (D-CA), Marcy Kaptur (D-CA), and Jared Golden (D-ME) — are projected to stay in Democrats’ hands.
But Gaetz’s registration is also posing problems for Republicans in the present Congressional session where Republicans hold a 220-213 majority with two vacancies: the seat of the late New Jersey Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr. and Gaetz’s seat. With this majority, Johnson can only afford to lose three votes to pass legislation along party lines.
When a member chooses to resign from Congress, or their seat is vacant in the instance of a death, the majority will shift. A majority is considered to be 50% plus one vote. With 433 members of Congress, a majority sits at 217 votes. With all 435 seats filled, that majority increases to 218.
Following the president-elect’s nomination of Stefanik for U.N. ambassador and Waltz for national security adviser, House GOP leaders told reporters Tuesday that they did not anticipate any more of their conference leaving for the administration. But many GOP members, who were in the middle of leadership elections, were shocked Wednesday when news dropped of Gaetz’s nomination to the position of attorney general.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) expressed his discomfort with too many Republicans leaving the House for Trump’s administration despite Trump’s need to fill his administration.
He noted that Trump did tip him off about Gaetz’s appointment before the announcement was made, despite expressing hope earlier in the week the departures would stop for the time being.
“We’re both very aware of the margins and the size,” Johnson said. “Everyone in this room is deeply aware of it as well, and that’s why we’re emphasizing unity right now.”
And while some Republicans are pleased with Trump’s selections so far, they agree the margin for a GOP majority is enough to make them uneasy.
“I don’t know what the math is looking like, but you know, I don’t know how many more House members get plucked — three is starting to get pretty thin,” Chip Roy (R-TX) said.
Roy is aware of Johnson’s conversations with Trump but argued that they need to be strategic in moving forward about taking additional members.
“In all seriousness, with three now, you’re gonna have to figure something out with the timing,” he said. “Let’s assume it’s 222, give or take; that puts you at 219.”
Some House Republicans were less concerned about the potential razor-thin majority.
Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) said it was “a risk” but that Republicans had “managed a one-seat majority before.”
“So if we get down to that, then I think it will be fine,” she said. “The Republican Party is unified; we are unified behind President Trump’s vision, his promises to America, and that’s exactly what we’re going to execute and I am looking forward to.”
Meanwhile, House Democrats are enjoying watching the GOP drama, a marker of much of the 118th Congress plagued by infighting that led to delays in government funding and foreign aid packages, among other things.
Rep. Becca Balint (D-VT) said she’s surprised Republicans are trusting that Trump will not take more members and risk their majority.
“Trump cares about one thing: Trump,” Balint told the Washington Examiner. “He’s not thinking about a functioning House. He’s not thinking about how the House will function with the Senate. And the fact that he has created — he’s creating this problem.”
“They continue to think that he’s a trustworthy person, that he keeps his word, that what he says, he’s gonna follow through on,” Balint added. “I fear it’s going to be another two years of chaos with them in charge.”
Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA) doesn’t think Democrats will change the way they approach a razor-thin Republican majority next year given the current margins.
“It’s been a thin majority for two years, and we’ve seen that Republicans have, you know, an inability to count on their own members to vote on some of the most important things that we vote on like government funding and aid to Ukraine,” Aguilar told the Washington Examiner. “So I don’t anticipate that changing.”
“I didn’t run for Republican whip, so that’s not a concern that I spend a lot of time with. … It’s up to them how many members they seat on Jan. 3, and we’ll go from there,” the chairman added.
Most Republicans see the special elections to fill the vacant seats of Gaetz, Stefanik, and Waltz as their light at the end of the tunnel. The first one to be called will be Gaetz’s in Florida by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
Johnson told reporters he called DeSantis on Wednesday, as the governor can set the timeline for an election to fill a vacant congressional seat under state law. The goal is to have the seat filled by Jan. 3, fitting within the eight-week period laid out under Florida law.
“Florida is going to be busy with, you know, Rubio and two House members. A lot of action going on down there. We’re feeling a little lonely over in Texas right now,” Roy quipped.
While Gaetz’s seat may be filled rather quickly, Stefanik and Waltz appear to be staying in their seats for now. It is anticipated that, like Gaetz, their resignations would be timed to give the GOP enough time to fill their seat so it does not sit vacant for too long in the new Congress.
Stefanik’s special election has not been called yet, as she has not yet resigned from her seat. Once she does, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) will need to call a special election within 10 days and an election is required to happen within 70 to 80 days after that. Meaning if Stefanik waits until she is sworn in to resign, her solid-red seat could be vacant until April 20, which is 90 days from Inauguration Day.
Rep. Max Miller (R-OH), who has been vocal about his disapproval of Gaetz as Trump’s attorney general nomination, took a realistic approach to the state of the Republican conference. He said he thinks Republicans are “in the minority right now” but admitted that he thinks Trump’s House GOP choices are not as “reckless” as it is being made out to be.
“It’s a little bit more strategic in the way that we’re going to have these people bow out of the races, line them up with special elections that will, you know, happen within the 90-day period,” Miller speculated. “And so once you get Elise in, once you get Mike in, we wait the 90 days, we get those two new members in, and then we’ll probably pick a couple more.”
“I think we’ll continue to pull more people — I really do,” the Ohio Republican added.
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Johnson also sees the potential for more GOP members to join the Trump administration.
“The Republican conference is full of talented people who are extraordinary leaders and have great expertise,” the speaker said. “And everyone in this Congress, in this conference, could serve in a leadership position in the administration.”