The election of former President Donald Trump on Tuesday is looming large over another important race that will unfold next week: who will lead Republicans’ new Senate majority.
The three candidates to become the next GOP leader — Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD), Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) — are preparing for the distinct possibility that Trump could attempt to influence the process by endorsing his favored Republican in the race.
Trump hasn’t weighed in on the contest, which will be conducted by secret ballot on Wednesday, and there’s no guarantee that he will. But Trump’s preference could shape how the Senate’s Republicans vote, and whether there will be an upset.
Trump “obviously has tremendous influence, if he chooses to use it,” Thune said on Fox News on Wednesday. “It’s his prerogative to weigh in on that. Frankly, I think if he lets it play out, we’ll get the right person.”
Only one of the candidates, Scott, doesn’t have a rocky past with Trump. In fact, Trump endorsed Scott’s first leadership run, a failed challenge against Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in 2022.
But Scott is viewed as a long shot whose support may be limited to the conference’s conservative members.
The more likely choices are Thune or Cornyn, both of whom have been attempting to patch up their relationship with Trump after urging the party to move past him following his 2020 loss.
Each endorsed his run for president this cycle and, in more recent weeks, have fundraised for the Trump campaign. But the gestures have been more public from Cornyn. On Election Day, he went on Fox News to declare his desire to “Make America Great Again by making the Senate work again.”
Similar to Cornyn, Scott has been emphasizing his relationship with Trump.
“As Senate Republican leader, Sen. Scott will bring Florida’s winning conservative record to Washington and be a true ally to President Trump to executive his agenda,” said McKinley Lewis, Scott’s communications director.
The internal leadership election, limited to returning senators and senators-elect, will be the biggest GOP power shake-up the Senate has experienced in nearly 20 years, since McConnell first became party leader in 2007. McConnell will continue to serve as a rank-and-file member but decided to step down from leadership earlier this year.
Retirements and the addition of at least three newcomers — Bernie Moreno of Ohio, Tim Sheehy of Montana, and Jim Justice of West Virginia — could throw an extra level of uncertainty into the mix.
Thune has been considered the marginal front-runner due to his role as minority whip, the No. 2.-ranking leadership post. But the other leading contender, Cornyn, has kept the race competitive by emphasizing his fundraising chops and past experience in leadership.
Both have raised tens of millions of dollars for their GOP colleagues and candidates.
The public jockeying has been complemented by behind-the-scenes handicapping of how everything will play out. One source, speaking on condition of anonymity, emphasized the years Cornyn worked with Trump as majority whip as an advantage while suggesting Trump might really want a dark horse candidate like Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Daines, who hunts with Donald Trump Jr., has taken himself out of consideration and is expected to support Thune.
“I’m sure Trump, in his heart of hearts, would prefer Daines, and he certainly would prefer Rick Scott,” a former Senate GOP leadership aide said. “But if it’s a binary choice, Cornyn has the better relationship and has a better track record of working with Trump.”
A second source suggested Thune’s public appearances on the campaign trail would help him with incoming members.
“There’s a big difference between being asked to come to a state for a private fundraiser and being asked to campaign,” a Senate GOP operative said. “These incoming freshmen wanted to be seen with Thune on the campaign trail.”
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The leadership race has dragged on for months, thanks to McConnell’s decision to announce his retirement early. But the process will move quickly once lawmakers return from their election recess next week.
Senate Republicans are also moving quickly to get Trump’s Cabinet in order, with early conversations on confirmation hearings to be held after the GOP majority is seated Jan. 3 but before Trump retakes the White House on Jan. 20, according to a senior GOP aide.
– Samantha-Jo Roth contributed to this report.