A handful of competitive races in the 2024 election are too close to call and could decide who takes the House majority and how wide Republicans will have a majority in the Senate.
Republicans saw major success on election night, flipping the Senate and breaking the blue wall to send President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance to the White House.
2024 ELECTIONS LIVE UPDATES: LATEST NEWS ON THE TRUMP-HARRIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Republican Bernie Moreno unseated longtime Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and Tim Sheehy ousted Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), huge victories for the GOP. On the other side, Democrats secured victories in Michigan by electing Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and in Wisconsin by reelecting Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI).
The Senate races of Sens. Bob Casey (D-PA) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV), as well as the open Arizona Senate race, remain uncalled.
Casey and Rosen are all trailing closely behind their GOP challengers, while Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) has a 3-point lead over Kari Lake. Republicans could hold as many as 56 Senate seats, the most the party has held since the 71st Congress from 1929 to 1931.
In the House, 52 races remain uncalled in states including California, Oregon, Arizona, Ohio, and Virginia. Of the 22 toss-up House races, only four have been called by the Associated Press.
If Republicans manage to hold on to the House majority, they will likely still hold a razor-thin margin over Democrats, much like the one they operated under this Congress. To maintain their current five-seat majority, Republicans would need to win at least 10 of the 22 seats that are considered toss-ups in addition to defending the 208 seats that are rated as “likely Republican” or “lean Republican.”
Below are the competitive races still waiting to be called.
ELECTION 2024 RESULTS: WINNERS AND LOSERS IN HOUSE, SENATE, AND GOVERNOR RACES
Senate
Arizona
In the open race for Arizona’s Senate seat, Democrats are feeling more comfortable about securing a win in this battleground state compared to other competitive races.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is leading Republican Kari Lake, 50.4% to 47.7% with 61% reporting via the Associated Press. If Lake loses, she will join the ranks of Eric Hovde in Wisconsin and former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan as Republicans who failed to unseat incumbents this cycle.
How Lake would respond to a loss remains to be seen as she still refuses to concede the 2022 gubernatorial race that she lost to Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-NV) and filed multiple unsuccessful court challenges to overturn the results.
Pennsylvania
Casey, who has represented Pennsylvania in the Senate since 2007, is trailing slightly behind Republican Dave McCormick. The Keystone State, the premier battleground state coveted by Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, went to the president-elect with 19 electoral votes.
With 98% of votes counted, McCormick is leading Casey 48.9% to 48.5% as of 3:31 p.m. EST. It is likely that this race could head to a recount.
Nevada
Incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen is trailing Republican Sam Brown in a surprising twist to the election after Brown was consistently underperforming Trump’s vote share. Her seat was considered to be one of the most vulnerable earlier in the cycle, but Democrats had become more confident in holding on to it as Nov. 5 approached.
With 85% reporting, Brown is leading Rosen, 47.5% to 47% as of 3 p.m. EST.
House
Michelle Steel, California’s 45th District
Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) holds a slight lead over Democrat Derek Tran, who would make history as first Vietnamese American to represent California in Congress.
Steel is leading with 53% compared to Tran’s 47%, with 66% of votes counted as of 7 a.m. EST.
Mike Garcia, California’s 27th District
California’s 27th District would be a major victory for Democrats if they can flip this seat. Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) is facing Democrat George Whitesides.
Garcia leads Whitesides 51.2% to 48.8%, with about two-thirds of votes counted as of 7 a.m. EST.
Ken Calvert, California’s 41st District
In another prime pickup opportunity for Democrats, Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) is leading Democrat Will Rollins by 1 percentage point.
Calvert is reporting 50.5% of the vote compared to Rollins’s 49.5%, with 69% of ballots counted as of 12:37 p.m. EST.
David Valadao, California’s 22nd District
Rep. David Valadao (R-CA), one of two House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump and remain in Congress, holds a considerable lead over Democrat Rudy Salas. Salas challenged Valadao in 2022 and came close to unseating the incumbent.
Valadao is leading Salas 55% to 45%, with 56% of ballots counted as of 1:07 p.m. EST.
John Duarte, California’s 13th District
Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) is fighting to keep his D+4 seat. The freshman GOP lawmaker is rematching Democrat Adam Gray, whom Duarte beat in 2022 with just 564 votes.
Duarte is leading Gray 51.4% to 48.6%, with 52% of ballots counted as of 6:30 a.m. EST.
Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Oregon’s 5th District
First-term Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer represents a swing district in Oregon, maintaining mostly centrist views during her two years in the House. She is facing Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum, who has beaten Chavez-DeRemer twice before: once for a state House seat in 2016 and then winning reelection in 2018.
Democrats are on track to ousting Chavez-DeRemer. Bynum is leading Chavez-DeRemer 47.7% to 45.5%, with 69% of ballots counted as of 7:01 a.m. EST. Nearly 18,000 votes went to two third-party candidates.
Juan Ciscomani, Arizona’s 6th District
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), one of the most centrist Republicans in Congress, is facing a competitive race against Democrat Kirsten Engel. Engel ran for the seat in 2022 and received more than 49% of the vote against Ciscomani.
Engel is leading Ciscomani 49.7% to 48.2%, with 57% of ballots counted as of 2:38 p.m. EST.
David Schweikert, Arizona’s 1st District
Rep. David Schweikart (D-AZ) is considered one of the most vulnerable House members this cycle. He faces Amish Shah, who is backed by the New Democrat Coalition and a member of the House Democrats’ campaign arm’s “Red to Blue” program.
Schweikert leads Shah 50.8% to 49.2% as of 5:45 a.m. EST, with 60% of ballots counted.
Mary Peltola, Alaska at-large
Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) was one of House Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbents this cycle, facing a challenge from Republican Nick Begich for the third time since 2022.
Alaska implements ranked choice voting, so voters can rank candidates in order of preference. If a candidate does not reach 50% in the first round, votes are then reallocated as candidates are eliminated.
As of 3:14 p.m. EST, Begich leads with 49.7% to Peltola’s 45.3% with 76% of ballots counted. Independent John Wayne Howe and Democrat Eric Hafner nabbed 9,710 and 2,446 votes, respectively, with these likely to be reallocated to Begich and Peltola as applicable.
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Washington’s 3rd District
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA), one of the most centrist Democrats in the House, is slightly leading her opponent, Republican Joe Kent, for Washington’s purple district.
Perez leads with 52% of the vote compared to Kent’s 48%, with 59% of ballots counted as of 1:31 a.m. EST.
Jared Golden, Maine’s 2nd District
Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) is narrowly leading Republican Austin Theriault despite the GOP candidate holding a steady lead for much of election night. Another conservative House Democrat, Golden’s seat was considered a prime target for Republicans this cycle.
Golden holds 50.4% of the vote to Theriault’s 49.3%. Theriault said in a statement the race is still too close to call and that “every vote should be counted.” This race’s margin could trigger an automatic recount.
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Marcy Kaptur, Ohio’s 9th District
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), the longest-serving lawmaker in Ohio’s delegation, is facing a competitive challenge from Republican Derek Merrin. Though not considered a toss-up, the race is razor thin with Kaptur narrowly leading as of 2:23 p.m. EST.
Kaptur holds 48.1% of the vote compared to Merrin’s 47.8% with 99% of votes counted. Libertarian candidate Tom Pruss siphoned off 4% of the vote with 14,799 votes.