High hopes
Drugs and crime are top concerns for voters, and five states could wind up changing the conversation by legalizing their use. Some states are opting to ask voters to reconsider how marijuana is treated, while a single state is taking the legalization question further, possibly following in the footsteps of Colorado and Oregon — states that liberally loosened drug use policies and are paying the price for the decision.
As we have been writing about all week, the 2024 election cycle, and all cycles, really, are about much more than who is going to control the House, Senate, and White House. Those races command most of our attention as they give voters a sense of which direction the country is leaning at a point in time. But the state laws that control abortion, minimum wages, school choice, and voting laws are going to have a more immediate effect than the outcome of Vice President Kamala Harris versus former President Donald Trump.
We’ve tried to help make sense of it all, and this morning, we are back at it with Healthcare Reporter Gabrielle Etzel breaking down the drug policy measures voters in Florida, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Nebraska, and South Dakota should keep an eye out for when they cast their ballots.
“Five states have drug legalization referendums on the ballot this election season, making next week critical for the future of illicit drug policy across the country,” Gabrielle wrote.
“Thirty-eight out of 50 states have legalized medical marijuana, while 24 have authorized it for recreational use as well. Florida, North Dakota, and South Dakota have initiatives on the ballot this year, and, if passed, a majority of states would allow for the recreational use of cannabis.”
Massachusetts is the most interesting outlier of the five as voters consider whether they want to take recreational drug use a step further and open the door for psychedelic drug use. The state approved the recreational use of marijuana in 2016.
Few other states have moved to allow recreational use of psychedelic drugs — psilocybin and psilocin from mushrooms and dimethyltryptamine, mescaline, and ibogaine from plants — and only Massachusetts is considering it this year.
It’s not clear how voters feel about the step. One poll from the University of Massachusetts Amherst found voters who support and oppose the measure evenly split, with about 14% of voters saying they were undecided. The measure only needs a simple majority to be approved.
Click here to read more about the varied fights for drug legalization on the ballot this year.
States of the race
Everything about this election cycle is hanging on razor-thin margins in a handful of states. Trump and Harris are essentially tied in the seven swing states that will determine the winner of their contest, trading leads and rarely pulling ahead outside the margin of error anywhere.
How easy either of their administrations’ early days are going to be will depend on which party controls the House and Senate. It looks as though Republicans are going to capitalize on their favorable Senate map and retake control of that chamber, though it’s not clear by how much.
To help readers get their arms around the sprawling contest and keep all of the issues straight, the Washington Examiner has sent our top reporters on the road to get a feel for how the political winds are blowing in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nebraska, and Maryland.
Here is a roundup of what we’ve found in recent days and a preview of what to expect from our team as Election Day approaches.
Michigan
National Political Correspondent Mabinty Quarshie is in Flint, Michigan, keeping an eye on the dueling presidential campaigns trying to take control of a pivotal Rust Belt electorate that offers them 15 Electoral College votes.
“Of the three blue wall states, Harris is polling best in Michigan, according to Real Clear Politics’s poll average of the battlegrounds,” Mabinty wrote.
“The vice president currently has less than a 1-point lead over Trump, 48% to 47.6%, while in Wisconsin, her lead is narrower, 48.3% to 48.1%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump bests Harris 48.2% to 47.6%,” she wrote.
Both campaigns are spending time in the state today and this weekend, with a particular focus on Arab voters who are frustrated with the Biden administration’s response to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
Nebraska
Congressional Reporter Cami Mondeaux is in Nebraska, a state making headlines for a unique quirk this year that isn’t the way it apportions its Electoral College votes.
“Nebraska voters will have conflicting measures regarding abortion on the ballot on Nov. 5 that could drive voter turnout, as well as fuel confusion in the state,” Cami wrote.
“The dueling abortion-related measures, Initiative 439 and Initiative 434, propose drastically different laws to amend the state constitution. The first would enshrine abortion rights up until fetal viability, or roughly 24 weeks, while the latter would look to build on current state restrictions to ban abortion in the second and third trimesters, with exceptions for rape, incest, or medical emergencies,” she wrote.
Abortion has been an electoral winner for Democrats in recent years. Republicans are finding their footing in trying to moderate their messaging, and the Nebraska contest could provide a blueprint for other states that want to limit the procedure without suffering massive electoral defeats.
The directly competing measures are unique and could either cause confusion or give the clearest decision yet on how voters feel about limiting or delimiting abortion access.
Pennsylvania
Congress and Campaigns Editor David Sivak has an update from Pennsylvania on how Republicans are trying to recover from a searing Senate loss there two years ago. The decision to run celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz against the popular then-Lt. Gov. John Fetterman was one of the most painful defeats the party suffered in a disappointing cycle.
Now, the man Oz beat in the primary, Dave McCormick, is giving Republicans hope they can repair their mistakes.
“Republican operatives view the race as a toss-up, one that McCormick could win or lose depending on the early vote and how former President Donald Trump performs at the top of the ticket,” David wrote.
Voters there have told David they are disillusioned with Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA), a longtime member of Pennsylvania’s political elite whose father was governor of the state from 1987 until 1995.
The name ID has been helpful, but Casey’s star is starting to fade.
“His dad was fantastic, but he’s nothing like his old man,” Byron Chaundy, 70, told David recently.
Maryland
Congressional Reporter Ramsey Touchberry has been in close contact with the candidates running for an open Senate seat in Maryland. Former Gov. Larry Hogan was on the cusp of convincing Republicans they could win a Senate seat there for the first time in decades. Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks had different plans, ones that look likely to succeed.
Hogan was a popular governor, treading a centrist line in a deep-blue state. Voters were happy to let him pull the levers of government at home, but with a closely divided Senate on the line, they are leaning toward not giving Republicans in Washington any more power than they already have.
Hogan hasn’t given up the fight, though he has been haunted by a Trump endorsement he didn’t ask for and is reluctant to talk about, Ramsey wrote.
“Hogan privately told donors in a leaked video call that ‘Donald Trump actually endorsed me’ when prompted about the two’s rival relationship, saying that he emphasizes it to ‘hardcore Trump folks’ who might be off-put by his more centrist views and opposition to the GOP presidential nominee,” Ramsey wrote.
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For your radar
President Joe Biden will be in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to speak about his support for unions at 4:30 p.m. before traveling to Wilmington, Delaware, for the weekend.
Harris will leave Nevada to campaign in Wisconsin at 8 a.m. Pacific time. She will speak at a campaign event in Janesville, Wisconsin, at 2:40 p.m. Central time and in Little Chute, Wisconsin, at 6:05 p.m. Central time. She will close her night with a rally in West Allis at 9:20 p.m. Central time.
Trump is counterprogramming Harris with a rally in Milwaukee at 9 p.m. Eastern time after a rally in Warren, Michigan, at 4:30 p.m. He is also scheduled to visit Dearborn, Michigan.
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) is splitting his day between rallying in Portage, Michigan, at 1 p.m. and Selma, North Carolina, at 5 p.m.
Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) is dueling with Trump and Vance in Michigan with a rally in Flint, Michigan, at 3:25 p.m. and then in Traverse City at 6:45 p.m.