Current 2024 election betting odds give former President Donald Trump the biggest lead any candidate has held since July, just days after Trump surged past Vice President Kamala Harris in presidential election odds for the first time in 26 days.
Trump jumped to a 9.2% advantage on Thursday, with bettors giving him a 53.9% chance to win and Harris a 44.7% chance. Harris’s largest lead among bettors this cycle has been 8.8%, a figure Trump briefly overcame until his Sept. 10 presidential debate performance tanked his odds for nearly a month.
On Thursday, Trump posted a screenshot of the Polymarket betting odds giving him an 11.5% advantage over Harris on the platform. Presidential betting odds differ from platform to platform, so while Trump led 55.5% to 44% on Polymarket this Thursday, his average lead in the markets was 9.2%, according to RealClearPolling.
Not only is Trump surging in the betting markets, but he is also leading in six of the seven key battleground states, including Pennsylvania by 0.1%, North Carolina by 0.5%, Georgia by 0.5%, Michigan by 0.9%, Arizona by 1%, and Nevada by 0.2%.
The former president is only trailing in Wisconsin by 0.3%. If the election were to fall exactly as the polls predict, Trump would win 302 electoral votes and become the first commander in chief since Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms.
Adding to the Republican optimism in at least four of those swing states is voter registration numbers as Democrats have lost significant ground to the GOP in Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada on the voter rolls.
Swing state voter registration has spiked in 2024, with more names being added to the rolls than last presidential election’s margin of victory in these battleground states. In many cases, Republicans are out-gaining Democrats, and this may signify greater Republican turnout than the polls suggest.
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The largest betting odds lead of the 2024 race came on July 13, the day Trump was shot in the ear at a Butler, Pennsylvania, rally in an attempted assassination. He led President Joe Biden by 48.5% on that day after he defiantly got back up onstage with a raised fist and bloodied face, drawing the admiration of both Republicans and Democrats.
Prior to Thursday, Trump’s largest lead since Harris first pulled ahead was a short-lived 5.2% advantage on Sept. 9. The next day, the pair faced off in their first presidential debate, which apparently discouraged bettors from backing Trump as he wouldn’t lead in the betting markets for 26 days after that.