Abortion, marijuana, and noncitizen voting ballot measures are among the top initiatives voters will decide on at the ballot boxes, with competitive congressional races and a contentious presidential election in states like Arizona, Florida, and Nebraska on the line.
For the 2024 election, 41 states have at least one ballot measure, with the highest-profile issue being abortion. Ten states have abortion-rights measures up for decision, with a handful being red or purple states that have competitive races, and Nebraska has an anti-abortion measure.
Other topics include criminal justice, ranked choice voting, redistricting, legalizing marijuana, and raising the minimum wage.
With several important policy measures on the ballot, voter turnout could have a significant impact on toss-up House and Senate races that could determine whether Republicans maintain a majority in the lower chamber and Democrats hold onto the upper chamber.
Battle over abortion extends into 2024
After the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade in 2022, several abortion bans or restrictions went into effect, and Democratic lawmakers and organizations moved to get abortion rights enshrined into state law through ballot initiatives.
Since the overturning of Roe, there has been a 7-7 record for abortion rights ballot measures passing. This year voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota will all have measures regarding abortion rights on their ballots. Only one state, Arkansas, did not get a successful ballot placement for an abortion-rights measure this cycle.
Many competitive races are on the line in the 10 states, but the most significant abortion ballot measures are in states like Arizona, Florida, and Nebraska.
Arizona
The Arizona Abortion Access Act would stop the state from interfering with the right to an abortion before fetal viability. The point of fetal viability is believed to be around 23-24 weeks of pregnancy. Currently, abortion is legal in Arizona through 15 weeks of pregnancy with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Democrats are hoping the abortion measure will boost their chances of winning key races this fall, including the Senate race for outgoing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Republican Kari Lake and the presidential election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris has made reproductive rights a focal point of her campaign, with an August survey finding her 3 percentage points ahead of Trump, 44.4% to 41.6%.
President Joe Biden narrowly won the state in 2020 by slightly over 10,000 votes, marking the first time the state voted a Democrat into the White House since 1996. The races of Reps. David Schweikert (R-AK) and Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) are ranked as GOP toss-ups by Cook Political Report.
Florida
Trump caused a stir in conservative circles after he signaled support for Florida’s abortion rights measure that would repeal the state’s six-week ban. However, in August, Trump reversed course and said “Democrats are radical” and that he opposed abortions up until nine months.
Amendment 4, the Right to Abortion Initiative would limit prohibitions on abortion before fetal viability, or around 24 weeks. Several polls indicate the majority of voters are in favor of the measure, making Florida the reddest state that could pass an abortion-rights ballot initiative. Polling shows the measure will likely hit 50%, but Florida Republicans have been actively campaigning against the movement — so whether the initiative will meet the state’s 60% passage threshold on Election Day remains to be seen.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) is facing a strong Democratic challenger, former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, in the general election. She’s raked in millions of dollars compared to Scott, but polling shows the incumbent holds a lead in the race. His race will be closely watched as he is actively running for Senate Republican leader.
Nebraska
In Nebraska, voters will vote for two dueling abortion ballot initiatives. Under current law, abortion is banned after 12 weeks of pregnancy. The measure that wins the most votes will be added to the constitution.
The Protect the Right to Abortion Constitutional Initiative would enshrine the right to abortion in the state’s constitution until fetal viability or when needed to protect the life or health of the pregnant patient. Voters will also vote on Initiative 434, which would prohibit abortion after the first trimester with exceptions for medical emergencies or if the pregnancy is a result of sexual assault and incest.
The measures could have a significant impact on the presidential election, particularly because Nebraska awards two electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote statewide and one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each congressional district. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, a swing district, could determine the general election if it comes down to just one vote.
The seat of Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), who represents the 2nd District, recently shifted from toss-up to “lean Democratic” as Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas leads Bacon by 4 to 6 points in various polls. Harris also has an advantage in the district, leading with 9 to 11 points.
Marijuana hits ballots as Harris and Trump solidify support
Both Harris and Trump have reaffirmed their support for legalizing marijuana, a key issue that is important to several voting blocs heading into the 2024 election.
Florida, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota have ballot measures that approve recreational or medicinal marijuana.
Trump said he would vote in favor of Florida’s Amendment 3 that, if passed, will make recreational-use marijuana legal. Like all Sunshine State ballot initiatives, it needs 60% of the vote to pass. Many Republicans, including Trump allies like Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), are against the measure.
In a recent interview with All the Smoke podcast, Harris said she supports legalizing marijuana and it’s “not a new position for me.”
Nebraska has two ballot initiatives: one allowing medical-use marijuana and the other regulating the medical marijuana industry in the state. Both North and South Dakota’s initiatives would legalize recreational marijuana.
Ranked choice voting, noncitizen restrictions, and tough-on-crime measures
Six states and Washington, D.C., have ranked choice voting ballot initiatives on the ballot this November. Colorado, Washington, D.C., Idaho, Nevada, and Oregon are looking to implement ranked choice voting for congressional elections, gubernatorial races, and other statewide offices. If approved in Oregon and Washington, D.C., ranked choice would also be used in the presidential race.
Alaska’s initiative is looking to repeal ranked choice voting, which was adopted in 2022 and was partly responsible for Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) becoming the first Democrat to win the state’s lone House seat in 50 years. Missouri’s measure would ban the voting system preemptively, joining states like Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Kentucky that have outlawed the practice.
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Three states — Arizona, California, and Colorado — are asking voters to approve tough-on-crime initiatives. In Arizona, Proposition 313 would require life imprisonment for people convicted of child sex trafficking and Proposition 314 would allow police to arrest noncitizens who enter the state at places other than an official port of entry. California would stiffen penalties for certain drug and theft convictions, and one of Colorado’s measures would end the right to bail for first-degree murder.
Eight states will look to ban noncitizen voting, a Republican flashpoint that has been driven home by conservatives as it amps up criticisms of Biden and Harris’s border policies. Federal law requires voter registration forms to compel voters to swear under penalty of perjury that they are citizens of the United States. A fraud database housed by the conservative Heritage Foundation found only 100 cases of noncitizens voting between 2002 and 2022 among a sample of more than a billion ballots.