Republicans in Nebraska are trying to change a critical part of the state’s electoral process, which could have significant effects on the presidential election.
The change, a switch from a system that awards electoral votes by congressional districts to a more traditional winner-take-all system, would likely give former President Donald Trump an additional electoral vote instead of ceding it to Vice President Kamala Harris.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which includes the city of Omaha, has leaned toward Harris, and a new push to a winner-take-all system would negate whatever support she has there.
It’d also irrefutably improve Trump’s chances of getting back into the White House. It could prevent Harris from winning 270 electoral votes even if she can capture the battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In that scenario, Trump could still tie the election if he grabbed the slightly Republican-leaning Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, while snagging Nevada away as well.
In a tie, whoever is newly elected to the House would select the president, and the Senate would elect the vice president. Republicans are generally favored to win the Senate, while the House picture is more blurry.
Trump and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) have been lobbying Nebraska state senators to change the system, and Republicans in the state have the power to do so with a supermajority in the state’s legislature. However, all 33 Republican state senators would have to vote yes in order to pass the change to the system.
At least one has indicated he will not. Recent Republican convert State Sen. Mike McDonnell said this week that he’s a “no” vote. McDonnell is a potential candidate to be Omaha’s mayor, and a “yes” vote from him would likely stir opposition against him because the district supports that it has an individual impact on the presidential election. There’s been a financial benefit to political campaigns visiting the district, an occurrence that’d likely go away if the state goes to winner-take-all.
“The people of the 2nd district are excited to get out to vote, and they are offended by the prospect of the governor and senators and out-of-state interests taking away the opportunity to have their voice be heard,” Democratic state Sen. John Cavanaugh said. “Any politician who takes away their vote to have their voice be heard will feel the repercussions at the ballot box.”
A recent poll showed Harris leading in the 2nd district by 5 points, while Trump led by 17 points statewide. Trump lost the district in 2020 by about 6 points and won it by 2 in 2016.
Republican Nebraska Secretary of State Bob Evnen believes the state could finalize the change as late as the day before Election Day, his spokeswoman told the Washington Post.
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The only other state that awards its electoral votes by congressional districts is Maine, which is largely Democratic outside of one-leaning Republican district.
RealClearPolitics’s latest polling average has Harris leading Trump by nearly two points nationwide.