Lake vs. Masters? Sinema Senate seat could draw crowded Republican field
Barnini Chakraborty
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Kari Lake and Blake Masters, two of Arizona’s most polarizing political figures, could soon be on a collision course as reports surface that both camps are considering a 2024 run for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) Senate seat.
But they’re not alone.
The list of possible candidates to take on Sinema, who broke ties with the Democratic Party in December, has grown in recent days as a feud between her and progressive Democrats threatens to put the coveted seat back in Republican hands.
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Sinema, a centrist senator who often frustrated her Democratic colleagues, announced she would switch her party affiliation from Democrat to independent just days after Democrats expanded their majority in the Senate to 51-49 following a tough runoff race in Georgia.
Her move risks splitting the Democratic vote in Arizona, but it gives Republicans a much-needed opening after bruising defeats.
Among the possible GOP contenders are Lake, Masters, U.S. Reps. Andy Biggs and Juan Ciscomani, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, Karrin Taylor Robson, and Arizona GOP Chairwoman Kelli Ward.
The diverse group of candidates, which includes hard-line election deniers and more centrist candidates, demonstrates how the Arizona GOP is still trying to find its footing with voters following a disappointing 2022 midterm election cycle in which the party backed conservatives who ran full Trumpist campaigns — and lost.
Arizona Republicans are holding their state convention on Saturday to elect a new chairperson who could steer the party in a new direction altogether, Chuck Coughlin, an Arizona-based Republican strategist, told the Washington Examiner.
“It’s pretty obvious to me, to anybody quite frankly, that the last several cycles, as they continue to name MAGA candidates, they continue to lose,” he said. “You would think they’d learn their lesson at a point.”
Chris Baker, a GOP political consultant who works on congressional and legislative races in Arizona, said in 2022 that “the Republican Party in Arizona is at a crossroads.”
“Conservatism wins in Arizona,” he told AZ Mirror. “Crazy does not.”
Lake and Masters, two Trump-endorsed MAGA candidates rejected by voters, have indicated they are interested in another run.
Masters told the Washington Post he was “seriously” considering it, and the news outlet reported a source close to Lake claimed she was also weighing the option. Lake has yet to concede her race for governor, claiming, without proof, that she was the victim of a rigged election and is the real victor.
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Despite the identity crisis plaguing the Republicans, the real fireworks could come in the Democratic race, Coughlin said.
Sinema’s defection was seen as an acknowledgment she could not win her primary, with some claiming there has been so much bad blood between her and Arizona Democrats that there is no way forward for her. Sinema notoriously stood in the way of President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better legislation and stymied the party’s push to abolish the filibuster in the Senate.
Coughlin believes Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) will announce his intention to run next week.
“It will be a bitter fight to make sure she can’t get 20 to 25% of Democrats,” Coughlin said. “He is going to be very vocal about how she has failed the Democratic Party.”
A Jan. 11 survey released by Blueprint Polling showed Lake beating potential competitors Sinema and Gallego, who currently represents Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District.
Lake polled at 36%, while Gallego came in at 32% and Sinema 14%.
If Democrats are worried, they haven’t shown it.
“Senator Sinema may now be registered as an Independent, but she has shown she answers to corporations and billionaires, not Arizonans,” the state party said in a statement.
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The Primary Sinema PAC was just as blunt: “Now, we’ll beat her in the general election with a real Democrat.”