Biden hits halfway mark as mixed economic results define first two years
Haisten Willis
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President Joe Biden reached the halfway mark of his first term Friday, two years to the day since he was inaugurated on the steps of the Capitol.
With recent success getting bills passed and unemployment near record lows, the White House sent out messaging that touted its successes. On the other hand, the GOP sharpened its talking points on soaring inflation, record illegal immigration, and the ongoing documents scandal as both parties look toward the 2024 elections.
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“When I came to office, we had a lot of problems,” Biden said Friday before a group of mayors. “The pandemic was raging. Our economy was reeling, but we acted together. Now, two years in, it’s clearer than ever that our plans work, and we’re building the economy from the bottom up and the middle out, not just the top down.”
White House communications director Kate Bedingfield sent out a cheat sheet earlier in the day highlighting Biden’s accomplishments. The sheet claimed Biden owns the most significant legislative record since the Johnson administration, created 10 million jobs, and the best first midterm election results of any Democratic president in 60 years.
The Republican National Committee was ready with its own memo, titled “two years of failure.”
This one highlighted inflation, which was at 1.4% the day Biden took office and still sits at 6.5% after peaking above 9% in the summer, and gas prices, which were $2.39 per gallon two years ago and are now $3.39.
The GOP also highlighted soaring crime, the southern border crisis, and trillions in government spending approved in 2021 and 2022.
“After two years of Joe Biden, American workers are seeing their paychecks shrink, and families are paying more for gas and groceries,” read a statement from RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel. “The border remains wide open while violent crime and drugs continue to pour into our neighborhoods. Americans are paying the price for Biden’s failed policies.”
Biden ran for office as an establishment figure and a centrist who would stabilize Washington after four years of President Donald Trump. Inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2021, two weeks after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, he seemed ready for the moment and capable, which was reflected in public polling.
Fully 56% of voters approved of Biden on day one, against 36% disapproval, per the RealClearPolitics average. The 46th president’s approval numbers remained above water until August 2021 but have remained negative ever since. He’s now at 43% approval against 53% disapproval.
The turning point came with the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, which is now under investigation by the GOP-controlled House of Representatives. With the Taliban continuing to generate horrendous headlines, some argue it will be the defining event of Biden’s entire presidency.
“Again this past week, we saw multiple stories about how women in Afghanistan are being killed and assassinated,” said David Garrow, a historian and author of the 2017 book Rising Star: The Making of Barack Obama. “The abandonment of Afghanistan by this administration will always be its defining horror.”
Nonetheless, consensus seems to be building that Biden, 80, will in fact seek a second term in office that could see him remain president until age 86.
That arguably contrasts with his 2020 rhetoric, in which he called himself a “bridge” to a new generation of leaders. However, Biden only pledged not to seek a second term if he was in poor health.
Despite the immigration crisis, high inflation, and an unfolding classified documents scandal, Democratic strategist Brad Bannon likes Biden’s chances should he go for another round in the Oval Office.
“You never know; we’ve got two years to go, but right now, I’d say his chances of getting reelected are promising,” said Bannon.
The most critical factor, he argues, will be the state of the economy across the rest of 2023 and ’24. Economic circumstances have played a role in many an election, with recessions likely sealing the deal for Barack Obama and 2008 and helping Bill Clinton oust George H.W. Bush in 1992.
With Bloomberg forecasters signaling a 100% chance of a recession before October of this year, that will prove a tricky factor for Biden to try and manage.
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“The biggest challenge he has going forward, and the thing Americans will judge him by in reelection, is the economy,” Bannon said. “The [annual] budget deficit is down, jobs are up, inflation is high but coming down — the economy is the big thing.”