House Democrats are counting on the special election in New York‘s 26th Congressional District on Tuesday to narrow Speaker Mike Johnson‘s (R-LA) House majority even more, while Republican Gary Dickson is hoping for a “dramatic” underdog victory.
Dickson, a West Seneca supervisor who is an Army and FBI veteran, argues he has a “better message” than his Democratic opponent for New York‘s special election to replace former Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins.
Higgins, who announced he would depart Congress early in November, stepped down on Feb. 2 to become the president and CEO of Shea’s Performing Arts Center in Buffalo, New York. Local party committees selected their nominees for the Tuesday special election and the winner will finish the remainder of Higgins’ term.
Longtime New York state Sen. Tim Kennedy rallied support and was selected in January as the Democratic Party’s nominee. In a seat ranked “solid Democratic” by the Cook Political Report, the race is very favorable for him to become the sole Democratic Kennedy in Congress since the exit of former Massachusetts Rep. Joe Kennedy, who served from 2013 to 2021 and now serves as the United States special envoy for Northern Ireland.
Despite the district’s D+10 rating, Dickson said in an interview with the Washington Examiner that he is proud of his team’s active social media, radio ads, and text campaigns.
“I think we have an advantage in that we have a much better message, and that we have a message of inclusion that everybody in the district can get behind, which is: crime, ensuring we have safe streets; controlling the border, so that only people who we want in enter; and the economy, you know, cutting inflation,” Dickson said. “As well as the fourth one, education. Every child, no matter who they are, deserves a good education up through high school.”
The winner of the special election will determine just how narrow of a majority Speaker Johnson has. With the recent death of Rep. Donald Payne Jr. and the recent resignations of Reps. Ken Buck (R-CO) and Mike Gallagher (R-WI), Johnson now holds a 217-212 majority and can afford to lose two seats on any given measure to pass along party lines.
If Kennedy wins, Johnson’s majority will narrow to just a one-seat majority. Regardless, whoever wins the contest will finish the remainder of Higgins’s term through Jan. 3, 2025. The election for the full term is scheduled for June 25.
Kennedy holds a significant advantage when it comes to fundraising and exposure. As a state official, he can count on recognition, boosted by TV ads circulating throughout the blue district. He also spent years becoming one of the top New York political fundraisers, raising $745,000 in the first six weeks after entering the special election race in November.
Dickson said he plans to spend around $50,000, which he said is likely unheard of in a congressional race. Though Kennedy possesses the coffers to support his campaign, Dickson said he thinks Kennedy has “a number of vulnerabilities” that could be the Democrat’s downfall.
“We’re taking advantage over the difference between me, a successful four-year town supervisor who hasn’t raised taxes that entire time, and him, a 14-year state senator who has presided over a leader in the New York state Senate who has presided over out of control budgets, laws that — they’re anti-law enforcement, and just everything else that he basically does whatever the New York City liberals tell him to do,” Dickson said.
Dickson has experience winning against the odds when they lean Democratic. In 2019, Dickson became the first Republican to be elected supervisor in half a century. He won a second term for the position with nearly 60% of the vote last year.
“When I ran — and in recent times, there frequently had not even been a Republican candidate — so when I ran, I ran on a platform of fiscal responsibility, and good government, and respect for the taxpayers,” Dickson said. “And it turns out that that’s the sort of thing that can appeal to everybody, you know, Republican, Democrat, and everybody else.”
With special elections, turnout is historically lower than in full-term elections. So, Dickson could find success with unpredictable turnout. The 26th District is a seat President Joe Biden won with 56.2% compared to former President Donald Trump’s 41.7% in 2020.
However, Dickson said people are “very unhappy” with New York state due to the loss of a congressional district, anti-police policies, and more.
“So what he thinks may be his strongholds may, in fact, not be quite so strong,” Dickson said of Kennedy. “So you know, we’re optimistic — but you know, we do certainly understand that this would be quite a dramatic story if we win. But, you know, stranger things have happened.”
Former Democratic congressional candidate Nate McMurray, who ran for the House on two occasions in the past 10 years, had considered an independent bid for the special election. Instead, he decided to challenge Kennedy as a Democrat in June for the full-term primary election.
McMurray had submitted more than 1,400 designating petitions to secure a spot on the June ballot. However, last week, Kennedy filed a lawsuit against McMurray asking a judge to take McMurray off the ballot, alleging that most of the petition signatures are not valid and the person McMurray contracted to help him collect the signatures committed fraud, according to Spectrum News 1.
In terms of the Republican June primary, Dickson said “there is no question” that he will be running for a full term if he is elected on Tuesday.
“Because then I’ll have the same message that got me in office,” Dickson added. “And I’ll have the, you know, the advantage of incumbency, which is really, you know, the ability to get out and meet people.”
Kennedy has been a member of the New York state Senate since January 2011. He began campaigning for the Democratic special election nomination almost immediately after Higgins announced his intention to resign. He rallied support, and serious Democratic contenders, such as Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown and Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz, had declined to launch campaigns.
“I’m really proud of all of the hundreds of individuals that have supported me over this process, that have stepped up and said they want a government that is reflective of the people,” Kennedy said in an interview on April 24 with NBC affiliate 2 On Your Side. “They want a government that is functional.”
The Washington Examiner reached out to Kennedy multiple times for comment.
Other special elections are on the horizon, as well. A runoff for the special election to replace former California Rep. Kevin McCarthy is set for May, with Republicans Vince Fong and Mike Boudreaux set to compete against each other after neither could secure 50% of the vote in March.
The special election for Buck’s seat is set for June 25, with Republican Greg Lopez likely to win the solid red seat. Though Gallagher retired early as well, because of the timing of his resignation, Wisconsin law does not allow for a special election. So, his seat will remain empty until January 2025.
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New Jersey will also need to hold a special election after Payne died on Wednesday after suffering a heart attack and other health problems over the years. Because the filing deadline has passed for the June 4 primary election, Payne will likely win the New Jersey Democratic nomination posthumously. According to the New Jersey Globe, Secretary of State Tahesha Way would declare a vacancy after the June 17 certification of the results.
There are no special primary elections once a candidate is nominated, so Democratic county committee members in the district would need to meet to pick a replacement. The statutory deadline to replace Payne on the ballot is Aug. 29.