It necessitates repeating that former President Donald Trump isn’t going to beat President Joe Biden just by relying on Biden’s unpopularity because it is clear that Trump’s mere presence makes Biden more popular.
Biden’s approval rating among independents has risen over the past couple of months, with the only meaningful change in the political landscape being Trump’s victory in Iowa and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropping out of the presidential race. DeSantis was the only candidate who could beat Trump in the primary, ensuring that Trump would be the GOP nominee.
Gallup has Biden’s approval rating among independents up 17 points from October 2023 to January 2024. Emerson has Biden up 15 points from November to January, with Biden’s disapproval actually dropping below 50%. In both cases, Biden is still in the negative (down 21 points according to Emerson and eight points according to Gallup), but Trump spent almost his entire presidency down double-digits on his approval rating, and that has continued into his post-presidency.
We have already seen how this plays out. Twice. Biden beat Trump in 2020, and then Trump’s looming presence rescued Democrats from Biden’s unpopularity in the 2022 midterm elections. Yes, people still don’t like Biden, but they like Trump even less.
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If Trump and his team decide to just “play the hits” and run a campaign fresh out of 2020, he is going to lose again. An undisciplined Trump who scares away suburban women and talks about how 2020 was “stolen” loses to Biden. A Trump that gets convicted in any number of the criminal trials he is facing (after losing a civil case requiring him to pay $83.3 million to rape accuser E. Jean Carroll for defamation) loses. A Trump that is still so emotionally fragile that he and his team are complaining about media coverage of Taylor Swift losses. He is a politically toxic, undisciplined mess, and he will just make Biden look better by comparison.
Republicans can’t simply count on Democrats giving them a win because 2022 proved that it was Republicans who voters would throw under the bus if they hated both options. Republicans can’t win with the same old Trump, and that bodes ill when you remember that you can’t teach a 77-year-old dog new tricks.