With Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R-FL) presidential campaign ending, the obvious question is what comes next for him. The most likely answer is a 2028 presidential campaign.
It is impossible to know who will be in contention for the 2028 GOP nomination. When that race starts in 2027, three years will have passed. New GOP stars will be made in that time, ones whose names aren’t known now even by the most invested political pundits. No one knows who will be the front-runner in that race, but DeSantis’s numbers and the circumstances leading up to the race will likely leave him in the mix.
For one, DeSantis will not just be vanishing from the political scene. He will remain the governor of Florida, presiding over conservative win after win while remaining a target of national Democrats. Florida is going to remain the conservative model for the country, which means DeSantis is going to remain in the GOP conversation.
DeSantis also remains incredibly popular even among supporters of former President Donald Trump. He would have immediately inherited half of Trump’s supporters if Trump had dropped out and was within striking distance of Trump before the indictments solidified GOP support for the former president. He was the only candidate at any point in the primary to present a real polling threat to the popular (among Republicans) former president, and he did so without alienating the hardcore supporters of said former president.
If Trump wins, his vice president will likely be the GOP front-runner for 2028. And yet, the most likely outcome looking at the numbers right now is that Trump loses to Biden again. That is what most of the indicators have been pointing to: Trump’s 2020 loss, the 2022 midterm elections dud, Trump’s own polling numbers, especially when it comes to how many voters will rule him out if he is convicted of a crime.
That means, as of now, the likeliest scenario is that the GOP will be coming off losses in the 2024 election, and DeSantis’s 2024 run will have been vindicated coming off the 2026 midterm elections as he leaves office in Florida. Again, three years is a long time in politics, but the path should very clearly be there in 2028.
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Regardless, the nominee the GOP puts forward in 2028 should be one in the mold of DeSantis. Whether it is focusing on piling up wins and turning a once-swing state solid red or dismantling media narratives to the face of biased journalists, DeSantis has created the model for the next generation of GOP politicians to successfully fight the Left. No matter who rises up through the party over the next three years, DeSantis should remain a top option for the GOP.
Or, Trump can win the nomination again after another loss to Joe Biden. It would at least be consistent with GOP decision-making over the past decade.