It is 7:30 Saturday evening in Des Moines, Iowa, and the campaign headquarters for Vivek Ramaswamy is rocking. There isn’t a phone that isn’t being used by a volunteer to call either precinct captains or a county chair or co-chair, a grassroots activist, or any of the number of people who attended any one of the hundreds of events the Columbus, Ohio entrepreneur has attended here since launching his candidacy for president last year.
The candidate himself left here Saturday morning at 4:00 a.m. for a 600-mile swing through the state during a blizzard. It is important to note his jaunt in the snow was not in a last-minute ditch to make sure he left nothing on the field — he hasn’t. Ramaswamy had done what in Iowa is known as a “full Grassley” twice (visiting all 99 counties two times) and held over 390 events, a number that exceeds all of the other Republican presidential candidates combined and the most in Iowa caucus history.
In short, in terms of being there — including visiting more Pizza Ranches than any other candidate in Iowa history (if you know, you know) — Ramaswamy has done it in spades.
The polls show Ramaswamy running a distant fourth behind former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. However, Iowans caution polling here is hard to nail down because of the ability to be persuaded otherwise during the intimacy of a caucus.
Republican Howard County chairman Neil Shaffer said nothing is more persuasive than meeting the candidate in person, “And that is something voters here in North East Iowa have done twice with Ramaswamy and once with DeSantis, and both have run field operations that should not be discounted,” he added.
As for Ramaswamy, Shaffer warns there could be an element of surprise Monday with his place in the results because the potency of his candidacy has been largely dismissed. “Vivek had two events here in Howard County; both were very enthusiastic, and there were new people attending that I have never seen before,” he explained.
“I have been saying all along that his poll numbers have been awful low for someone as active as he has been here and everywhere else,” said Schaffer, adding, “He’s pretty much next to DeSantis taken residency here.”
Shaffer, who likes Ramaswamy, is leaning toward DeSantis and has voted for Trump in the general election contests in 2016 and 2020. He said the voters he sees Ramaswamy invigorating are the young people.
“I have a young co-worker; he just turned 26; he is going to go to his first caucus, and I had taken him to one of Vivek’s events here,” he said, explaining that it is part of his role as county chair to encourage young people to get out to visit with all of the Republican candidates.
“I actually was able to pull Vivek over to visit with him a little bit and talk,” he said. “Well, he signed up for a card, he got contacted and received a box from the campaign, and he was showing me all of the things they sent him, so that just goes to show a voter inspired by Vivek that is showing up Monday night.”
“To be honest, he can’t wait to show up, and that is why you never know how those personal interactions impact a voter,” Shaffer said.
While much has been made about Trump’s massive lead in the polls, the press’s obsession with the possibility of a Haley surge or who can write the first obituary of DeSantis, Ramaswamy has been largely dismissed in the national narrative other than pejoratives about what they view as a style that is provocative, a confidence that seemingly cannot be shattered, an overall outside the box approach to everything he does and his willingness to be combative and drop the F-bomb when he deems necessary.
And they’ve never understood his willingness to constantly defer to Trump’s accomplishments when president — which until Saturday was just fine with Trump … until it wasn’t.
Now, the 45th president has unleashed his wrath on Ramaswamy on social media.
“Vivek started his campaign as a great supporter, ‘the best President in generations,’ etc. Unfortunately, now all he does is disguise his support in the form of deceitful campaign tricks,” Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social, on Saturday.
And in true take no prisoners style Trump placed a cherry on top of his post, adding, “Very sly, but a vote for Vivek is a vote for the ‘other side’ — don’t get duped by this. Vote for ‘TRUMP,’ don’t waste your vote! Vivek is not MAGA,” Trump added in his first sharp arrow the former president has shot at Ramaswamy.
It is likely Trump’s hackles were up because he saw a post of Ramaswamy campaign T-shirts that read ‘Save Trump, Vote Vivek’ on social media with Ramaswamy standing with a group of young supporters wearing them in Rock Rapids, Iowa, on Saturday. It is also just as likely Trump sees that maybe it’s Vivek, not Haley he should be worried about nipping at his heels.
Either way, if there is one thing I’ve learned in covering Iowa it is to never underestimate any candidate. Competitors such as Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, John Kerry, Barack Obama, and Pete Buttigieg were largely dismissed as unable to win the Hawkeye State, but then went on to win.
It is worth remembering that for most of the horse race in Iowa in 2007 and other early primary states in 2008, Hillary Clinton held a commanding lead over Obama heading into that cycle’s January 3 caucus until the final weeks when both Obama and Edwards started to surge in Iowa. Clinton, like Howard Dean before her in 2004, fell into third place behind Edwards, who most people forget came in second here to both Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008.
While much of the press focuses on Ramaswamy’s successes in the high-tech world and his Ivy League credentials, it should not be overlooked that he calls Columbus, Ohio home — literally the middle of the country — and experiences there give him a different worldview and understanding of issues and concerns than the other candidates running.
On Saturday evening, the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Caucus poll showed Trump at 48%, Haley at 20%, DeSantis at 16%, and Ramaswamy at 8%.
NBC’s number guy Steve Kornacki posted on X, formerly Twitter, of those numbers that there were some cautionary notes. “[Haley’s] unfavorable rating has soared to 46%, up from 31%. And her favorability has fallen from 59% to 48%,” he posted.
Also of note Kornacki said “88% of Trump’s backers are extremely enthusiastic and 62% of DeSantis’s are, but the number for Haley is just 39%.”
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Kornacki did not note the enthusiasm number for Ramaswamy, but one thing I’ve learned in Iowa is to always expect the unexpected. Ramaswamy may be the surprise story of Iowa in 2024.
Shaffer said it would not be all that shocking for him to see him come in ahead of Haley, “So I still think Trump will do well, but I think DeSantis and Ramaswamy are going to do better than people expect Monday night. We shall see.”