DeSantis remains the only viable non-Trump candidate
Zachary Faria
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With another GOP debate in the books and all eyes on Iowa, one simple fact remains: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is the only viable primary candidate who can beat former President Donald Trump and win the nomination.
The much-hyped battle for second place is indeed a battle if you look only at the first poll numbers that catch your eye. DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley are typically receiving the same numbers nationally, and DeSantis’s lead over Haley in Iowa has tightened. Haley also pulls more support in more moderate New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina, leading many to think she has the momentum.
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Maybe she does, but that momentum has a hard ceiling. DeSantis, whose national support has been slowly rising again since October, remains the most popular alternative to Trump, and it isn’t particularly close. NewsNation’s poll before the debate found that DeSantis had the support of 11% of Republicans nationally to Haley’s 10%, while Trump led the way at 60%. But DeSantis was the second choice for 36% of Republicans, with Haley sitting at just 14%, behind even the social media fad campaign of Vivek Ramaswamy.
That means roughly 47% of GOP primary voters have DeSantis in their top two. This matches the recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll that showed that 44% of Trump supporters have DeSantis as their second choice. This has been the case for much of the race since Trump has pulled away. If he were to step aside or voters were to move on, DeSantis would inherit a sizable lead over Haley and the rest of the field.
If voters do decide to move on, Iowa has set the board nicely for DeSantis. He received endorsements from popular Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) and Iowa kingmaker Bob Vander Plaats. At this time in previous Iowa caucuses, 2012 winner Rick Santorum was sitting at 5.6%, and 2016 winner Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) had just begun his rise.
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Given the nature of caucuses and Iowa’s history of breaking late, this is the only early state in which Trump can be defeated based on the numbers. And, if the wind is taken out of Trump’s sails by DeSantis’s general popularity, powerful Iowa endorsements, and strong ground operation, that wind would then go to DeSantis, not Haley.
Going back to November of last year, there has only been one viable non-Trump candidate in the GOP primary discussion, and that has been DeSantis. Nothing on these debate stages, or in the media-hyped momentum behind Haley, has changed that fact. Trump or DeSantis will be the GOP nominee. The only question left is if the winds change in Iowa and flip the momentum back to DeSantis.