One of the oldest cliches in political commentary is that American elections boil down to turnout. It’s an old cliche because it’s true. Especially in a midterm setting, the party whose base is more engaged has a distinct advantage, particularly if independents are breaking its way, too. This appears to be the case for Democrats in 2026.
But a glimmer of hope for the GOP could rest on even a marginal uptick in base enthusiasm and participation in red states. As noted elsewhere, Democrats are attempting to gain seats in a slew of states President Donald Trump carried by 11-14 percentage points two years ago to win control of the Senate. The difference between Democrats having a realistic shot at pulling off this heavy lift and falling short is whether the structural Republican advantage in these places asserts itself.
I made the following point on Fox News last week, acknowledging that it’s not exactly an encouraging sign for Republicans that Trump and the vice president feel compelled to make campaign stops in places such as Kansas and Nebraska during the campaign’s closing weeks:
That said, incremental improvements within the party’s base could very well be the difference between a tough wave and a brutal one. For years, the conventional wisdom held that lower-turnout elections benefited Republicans, while more participation and engagement helped Democrats. That’s not true anymore.
The data show that if voter turnout had been higher in 2024, Trump would have maintained or expanded his margin of victory. And right now, multiple polls indicate that less enthusiastic and less reliable would-be voters favor Republicans. NBC’s Steve Kornacki recently broke down the phenomenon on Meet the Press.
NBC: Republicans need the midterms to be high turnout to do well
Will You Vote:
Definitely:D+12
Probably:R+16
No:— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 18, 2026
Fresh CBS News data paint a similar picture.
Democrats are cleaning up with definite voters this year. It’s little wonder that they’re favored to have a good cycle. But voters in the “probably,” “maybe,” or “probably not” categories are conspicuously red-tinted. In the CBS numbers, the “probably” and “maybe” voters skew 18 points in Republicans’ favor.
ABDUL EL SAYED’S CHRONIC, BRAZEN LYING
If enough of these people stay home, a blue wave is inevitable. But if sufficient numbers of these voters are reached and mobilized, a damage-mitigating firewall could remain intact. And that’s precisely why Trump’s schedule looks the way it does.
He’s crisscrossing the country, largely in conservative areas, to try to get his people out. The extent of his success in that mission will be one of the primary storylines of the election once the results are in.