Desperate to undermine successful American efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is escalating its attacks on ships transiting this vital energy chokepoint. According to the U.S. Navy, just as energy exports through the strait have reached prewar levels, attacks in the strait are also occurring at their highest rate since the war began.
It’s not surprising that Iran is lashing out. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ ultra-hardliners, who are now the most influential group in Tehran, know that if they cannot keep holding the strait hostage, they won’t be able to squeeze concessions from the United States. In other words, they know they’re losing this war.
To be sure, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains far from ideal. The U.S. Navy’s reopening effort centers on protecting a narrow area close to Oman’s coast. Ships must make the dash through these waters into the Arabian Sea. Such transits are fraught with complexity and risk, requiring higher insurance premiums and crew pay. This translates into higher oil prices than if Iran were to suspend attacks. Still, most vessels sailing through this corridor are now doing so without serious incident. That’s good news.
Restored energy flows may somewhat shield Republican candidates from public anger over high energy costs and inflation in the run-up to the midterm elections. With further adaptation to the new Hormuz realities, shipping rates and energy costs will fall. Analysts expect oil prices to fall for the rest of this year, bringing relief at gas stations.
Yet, by neutering Iran’s primary means of exerting pressure on the U.S. and the international community, the Navy is also making an end to the war more likely. While oil is now flowing to the world from America’s Middle Eastern allies, very little is getting out of Iran. That’s due to a U.S. blockade that has seen Iranian energy vessels boarded and fired upon.
Iran has been forced to reduce oil and gas sales to what can be smuggled on small boats or overland. These alternatives cannot replace oil tankers, and Iran’s scant exports are imposing an economic and political crisis on the mullahs. Inflation is running at around 90%, with even higher rates on key goods such as food. If Iran sells the last of its oil reserves at sea, it will find itself unable to generate revenue and import basic goods. Cuts to public salaries already stretched to the breaking point by inflation are on the way. Iran will be able to shield salary payments to the security forces only temporarily.
The CIA’s analysis of Iran’s deteriorating economic situation will be music to the administration’s ears. This is not because the economic pain will cause civilian hardship, but because it will force hard-line Iranian officials to get real about diplomacy. It will make them choose between serious compromises and risking an uprising that brings together unpaid security personnel and an enraged public. The U.S. will want to avoid state collapse in Iran to avoid a civil war, refugee crisis, security threats, and humanitarian catastrophe. But the Iranian regime will probably not risk self-destruction in resisting American pressure.
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President Donald Trump should be patient. Time is on America’s side. The president should force Tehran into a durable, verifiable agreement to end the war. It should entail an end to Iranian nuclear enrichment, perhaps with an exception for a single, face-saving, low-purity enrichment facility monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. It should mean a vigorous protocol for snap inspections involving agency officers pre-positioned across Iran, with no facilities off-limits. It should mean only limited sanctions relief, and only if and when Iran proves that it is complying. And it should mean Trump’s promise to restore the naval blockade if Iran breaks its obligations.
By recognizing the opportunity in Iran’s imploding economy, the U.S. can end this war with an agreement that addresses why it began: the need to put an enduring lid on Iran’s nuclear program.