Republicans are downplaying the possibility that Democrats could win over enough rural voters to help them flip the House and Senate this midterm election cycle.
President Donald Trump won roughly 7 in 10 rural voters in 2024, but two years later, discontent over his tariff policies, the Iran war, and the high cost of living has the GOP worried such voters could stay home on Election Day or defect to Democrats.
“No party, no candidate can take voters for granted,” said Jason Simmons, the chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party. “And so we are very aggressively continuing to talk to our voters and continue to talk to them about the accomplishments of Republican Party policies, and especially those accomplishments, both nationally and within our state.”
Rural voters are a prime constituency for Republicans in swing states like North Carolina and traditionally GOP strongholds like Kansas, Ohio, and Iowa. Each of those states looks to be trouble for Republicans less than a month from Election Day.
In deep-red Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall’s (R-KS) reelection bid hit a setback as the Cook Political Report moved the contest from “Leans Republican” to “Toss Up.”
The North Carolina Senate race between Republican Michael Whatley and Democrat Roy Cooper, meanwhile, has moved sharply toward Democrats despite Trump carrying the state three times. Cook rates the contest “Likely Democratic.”
Iowa, another state Trump comfortably carried in 2024, is facing closer-than-expected House, Senate, and gubernatorial contests. The state has not had an open governor’s race and an open Senate race in the same election since 1968.
But farmers have been hit particularly hard by the fallout from Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and higher diesel prices.
“The rural parts of Iowa, which are many, are clearly up for grabs, and the state is up for grabs,” said former Iowa Republican Party Chairman David Oman. “What’s helping in our state is candidate quality, particularly in our Senate race with Ashley Hinson. All due respect to the Democrat nominee, who I know and respect, Josh Turek, but Ashley is a winsome, articulate, hardworking, thoughtful person who has almost run a textbook campaign.”
Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) has broken with Trump over the Iran war, joining a growing list of Republicans trying to distance themselves from the White House.
“We have terrific candidates who are running good campaigns, and their messaging is good,” said Oman. “I’m not sure what another [Trump] drop-in visit for two hours would add. The people in his base who are really committed will vote, but … in terms of balance of power in Iowa, it’s going back and forth with maybe right under 30% registered independent. Those folks will swing the election.”
The broader danger for Republicans is that Democrats don’t have to win rural America to benefit from the GOP’s problems there. In closely divided states and congressional districts, merely cutting into the GOP’s prior overwhelming margins among rural voters, or having frustrated Republicans to stay home, could be enough.
The Democrats’ challenge is that the Republican brand remains considerably stronger in rural America.
A September KFF/Associated Press rural voters survey showed that 40% of rural voters trust the GOP to do a better job handling the cost of living, compared to 25% who said they trusted Democrats to do a better job.
Yet, the same survey underscored the vulnerability facing the GOP. The cost of living was by far the issue rural voters most wanted midterm candidates to address, with 69% saying it was “extremely important,” followed by healthcare costs at 56% and fraud in government programs at 54%.
One 66-year-old rural GOP voter from Ohio told the survey that “prices are too high right now.”
Jason Cabel Roe, a strategist for Rep. Tom Barrett’s (R-MI) campaign, said recent polling showed some erosion among precisely the voters Republicans have relied upon most heavily.
We “saw some softness … with men and rural voters, and I was actually glad to see that because I think they’re easier to get back than if we were hemorrhaging white women and black voters,” said Roe.
To that end, the Trump White House has repeatedly tried to blame former President Joe Biden’s policies for high costs and inflation, while claiming the public would understand that blocking Iran from having a nuclear weapon justified high gas prices. Republicans believe rural voters remain receptive to that case.
“Yes, you can’t overlook where gas prices are,” said Simmons. “But people also understand, especially rural voters, what is driving that, and they’re continuing to be supportive of that and recognize that this is a short-term pain for generational gains.”
The GOP’s other bet is that cultural and ideological differences with Democrats, who are increasingly embracing socialism, will ultimately outweigh frustration over prices.
“Rural voters are culturally conservative, and because they came into the party as part of the Trump coalition, I think they’re just sort of the most strident Trump supporters there are,” said Ohio GOP strategist Matt Dole.
Americans for Prosperity Action is among the conservative groups trying to reinforce that divide with rural voters in Iowa, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and New Hampshire. The group is investing in a more than $22 million ad campaign this month to boost the Senate candidates in those states and increasing its one-on-one door knocking in the final weeks.
“Breaking down the DSA agenda into what it really is — banning fossil fuels, defunding the police, seizing private property, packing the Supreme Court — is exactly what both frightens and motivates rural voters,” said Bill Riggs, an AFP Action spokesman. “But simply opposing those extremes isn’t enough. Concerns about costs are real, and offering a credible alternative plan matters just as much as exposing the false promises of socialism. That’s the conversation AFP Action is bringing to doorsteps across the battleground states through Election Day.”
REPUBLICANS WELCOME TRUMP’S HELP, JUST NOT IN BATTLEGROUNDS
Republicans are also cautioning against reading too much into polling showing them losing ground, pointing to surveys that underestimated Trump’s strength with rural voters in previous elections.
“I continue to think that polling is very suspect in the state of Ohio,” said Dole. “There are fundamental problems with polling today, and I don’t know if it’s a rural voter who refuses to answer or a Republican voter who refuses to answer, but I think the science is broken.”