Xavier Becerra may have a commanding lead in California’s gubernatorial race, but voters don’t seem particularly excited about him.
Becerra, the former President Joe Biden administration health secretary, leads Republican Steve Hilton by 18 points among likely voters, 54% to 36%, according to a new Politico-UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research poll.
But just 44% of likely voters view Becerra favorably, suggesting his lead is driven at least in part by California’s deep Democratic lean rather than broad enthusiasm for the nominee.
Even among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, Becerra’s numbers are hardly overwhelming, with 18% viewing him unfavorably.
“This is rather tepid, even among Democrats,” Jon Cohen, founder and CEO of TrueDot, whose firm fielded the poll, said.
The numbers come as Becerra tries to move past a bruising primary in which billionaire Tom Steyer and other candidates spent millions attacking his record and image. Becerra had been polling in the single digits for much of the primary before surging after Eric Swalwell’s campaign collapsed amid allegations of sexual misconduct and assault. Swalwell resigned from Congress and exited the race after becoming the leading Democratic contender.
Becerra emerged as the establishment alternative. He was the experienced, predictable candidate in a primary marked by political newcomers, controversy, and chaos.
The 68-year-old Sacramento resident brings decades of public service to the race, including time in the California Assembly, 24 years representing Los Angeles in Congress, a stint as California attorney general, and a Cabinet post.
Yet he has struggled to generate the kind of campaign energy that his Republican opponent has.
Hilton, a former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron and former Fox News host, has campaigned exhaustively across the state, held town halls and news conferences, and built a campaign centered on California’s high cost of living, homelessness, crime, drugs, human trafficking, healthcare for illegal immigrants, and gas prices.
Hilton has also benefited from a more energetic campaign presence. His events have often been crowded and boisterous, while Becerra has faced criticism for maintaining a relatively low profile since the June primary. Becerra pledged in August to participate in multiple debates before the Nov. 3 election, and the two candidates are scheduled to meet Sept. 30 in a nationally televised CNN debate.
Still, Hilton has his own favorability problem. Fifty-five percent of likely voters view him unfavorably in the Politico-Citrin poll, compared with 44% for Becerra.
Lukewarm feelings toward both candidates reflect broader dissatisfaction with California’s political leadership. Fifty-three percent of likely voters disapprove of Gov. Gavin Newsom, while 68% disapprove of President Donald Trump’s performance.
To California voters, “there’s no heroes out there,” Jack Citrin, a UC Berkeley political science professor and codirector of the poll, said. “That tepid outlook sort of is consistent with this more generalized mistrust of politicians and cynicism.”
Another recent Berkeley poll offered Becerra somewhat better news. The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found 48% of likely voters viewed him favorably, while 40% viewed him unfavorably. That same poll showed Becerra leading Hilton 58% to 33%, a 25-point advantage heading into the final weeks of the campaign.
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The competing polls point to the same basic reality: Becerra is in a strong position, but his personal popularity remains less imposing than his margin over Hilton.
For Hilton, the challenge is turning voter dissatisfaction with California’s direction into support for a Republican candidate in a state that has not elected a Republican statewide since 2006. For Becerra, the challenge is converting a commanding lead into genuine enthusiasm for his candidacy.