Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) may not have announced a 2028 campaign yet, but California activists and interest groups are already treating him like a presidential candidate — and increasingly taking their fights with him beyond the state’s borders.
With Newsom entering the final months of his governorship, groups battling him over labor, artificial intelligence, transportation funding, and business regulation are finding a new pressure point: his national political ambitions. Rather than lobby the governor in Sacramento, some are deliberately taking their attacks to states Newsom is likely to need if he seeks the White House.
That is creating an unusual dynamic for a governor who still has major decisions to make in California. The same constituencies Newsom may need to court in a Democratic presidential primary are beginning to use his potential White House bid as leverage over policies still sitting on his desk.
Transit advocates, for example, have taken their fight over Newsom-backed changes to California’s climate program to South Carolina and Nevada, including newspaper advertising aimed directly at voters in both states. Labor leaders have similarly warned Newsom they will confront him on the campaign trail if he fails to deliver on legislation governing artificial intelligence and workplace protections.
California political strategist Matt Klink said the national implications of Newsom’s unresolved policy fights could extend well beyond the immediate political pressure.
“Every unresolved fight in Sacramento carries a national price tag,” Klink told the Washington Examiner, pointing to Streets For All’s decision to buy newspaper ads in South Carolina and Nevada over changes to California’s cap-and-trade program. The group specifically targeted the states because Newsom may need them in a 2028 presidential campaign, he said.
“California’s progressive policies, particularly on the environment, taxation, and labor regulations, will be front-and-center in highly competitive Democratic primaries,” Klink added.
The emerging strategy amounts to a kind of political boomerang: Newsom is leaving California to build a national profile, while some of his California opponents are following him there.
Business interests have also taken their criticism national, including a California business group that used a Times Square billboard to attack Newsom’s record.
“Every interest group is going to use whatever tools it has at its disposal to create change in its favor,” Casey Hernandez, a partner at Seven Letter who has worked with the Los Angeles mayor’s office and former President Barack Obama, told the Washington Examiner. “Once you’re seen as a potential presidential candidate, those tools become a lot more plentiful. At this point, it’s not really about whether these groups can hurt Newsom nationally. It’s about making him believe an issue can follow him beyond California. And putting a national spotlight on an issue is likely to give them more leverage here at home.”
Whether that strategy actually hurts Newsom is another question.
Veteran political expert Garry South told the Washington Examiner such pressure is hardly unusual for a governor approaching the end of his tenure and contemplating a presidential bid.
“Interest groups in a governor’s home state will seek to use the governor’s interest in running for president as a pressure point to try to get what they want,” South said. “It’s just a reality that a sitting governor has to deal with.”
Klink said leverage grows when groups can take their grievances outside California.
“Special interest group leverage multiplies when a group can operate in two or more arenas, not just one,” he said. “A purely California grievance costs Newsom a bad news cycle; the same grievance aimed at South Carolina or Nevada costs him a permanent data point” that could raise questions about whether he can win a presidential primary.
National and early-state labor leaders have already made that calculation, Klink said, citing their warnings to Newsom about his approach to regulating artificial intelligence in the workplace.
Still, Klink said the ads themselves are unlikely to sway large numbers of voters in states such as South Carolina, Nevada, or Michigan.
“A transit ad in the Reno paper isn’t moving many 2026 votes,” he said, later adding, “The immediate goal is to get Governor Newsom’s attention. Real national impact is the longer-term play and won’t be visible for some time.”
Those groups are betting that Newsom’s policy record can eventually be turned into a broader narrative about contradictions in his political identity, Klink said — such as a governor who presents himself as a climate champion while reducing climate-related funding, or as a labor ally while resisting some union-backed AI protections.
Those arguments could become significantly more potent once a rival campaign or opposition operation begins putting them into presidential campaign ads, he said.
At the same time, Newsom faces the prospect of having his California record scrutinized by moderate voters in a general election, particularly on issues such as affordability, homelessness, and taxes.
Whether the pressure ultimately strengthens or weakens, Newsom remains an open question.
Political strategist Brad Chase argues that the barrage of criticism could give him an advantage over Democratic rivals who are not yet operating on a national stage.
“All the coordinated attacks really do is boost his name ID with voters in other states,” Chase added. “Newsom’s been hard at work on his own campaign since 2024, so enhanced criticism from all angles in every corner of the nation just helps him hone his messages.”
Political strategist Nick Smith, however, said the pressure can still create a genuine vulnerability for Newsom.
“Once a governor becomes a serious presidential prospect, local disagreements can become national liabilities,” Smith said. “Groups that lose a fight in Sacramento can follow Newsom to Nevada, South Carolina or Michigan and force him to defend his California record before national voters.”
The California-specific issue may not matter to voters in another state. But the broader question behind it can.
“A Michigan worker may know nothing about a California AI bill, but ‘When workers worried about losing their jobs to AI, whose side was Newsom on?’ is a national political question,” Smith told the Washington Examiner. “The details don’t travel; the narrative does.”
Newsom’s office has dismissed the idea that out-of-state pressure is affecting his decisions. But signs suggest the governor is increasingly aware of constituencies he could encounter in a presidential campaign.
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For South, however, the clock matters. Newsom has only months left in office, meaning the pressure campaign is ultimately a short-term challenge.
And if Newsom does eventually run, the fights that follow him out of California may become less about changing his final decisions as governor and more about defining the candidate he hopes to become.