Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly is winning among independent voters in the general election, according to a new poll conducted in the days leading up to the state’s primary elections, which advanced Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) in the GOP field.
The poll, conducted by Hart Research Associates, found former Republican Rep. Jolly holding a double-digit lead over Donalds among nonaffiliated voters. With only 11% of independents undecided, 48% favored Jolly compared to the 37% who favored Donalds.
In the general election, the poll painted a much tighter race, with Jolly leading Donalds by just 1 point in a 46%-45% split with 9% of respondents undecided. Earlier polling showed Donalds beating Jolly by 5 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average of two polls that surveyed voters on a hypothetical matchup between the two front-runners.
Jolly also holds the edge with independents on the topic of data centers, which has become a key issue in the gubernatorial race in the Sunshine State. Jolly has promised a moratorium on the large-scale industrial campuses, while Donalds has said he would support data center construction while considering environmental protection and protecting ratepayers.
According to the poll, 76% of independents had “major doubts” about supporting Donalds when presented with the following criticism: “Donalds supporting the construction of massive data centers AND giving the industry tax breaks.”
Donalds has not explicitly pushed for new tax breaks for data centers, but his campaign has received contributions from AI companies. He has maintained that the donations do not affect his stance on data centers.
Independent support for Jolly is not surprising, as the former Republican declared himself unaffiliated after leaving the U.S. House in 2018. He said he left the GOP after the party barred him from “exercising his values” that the government can help people, the economy should be fair, and immigrants are welcome.
Still, Jolly has an uphill climb to the governor’s mansion in Florida. In the 2024 presidential election, the state heavily favored President Donald Trump, who backs Donalds, and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) easily sailed to reelection.
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If he can maintain independent support, it could move the needle in his favor. According to the Florida Division of Elections, independents make up a large bloc of the electorate. Of the over 13 million voters, about 3.3 million are not affiliated with a political party, while 5.6 million and 4 million are registered Republicans and Democrats, respectively.
Conducted between Aug. 10 and Aug. 13, the Hart Research Associates poll surveyed 600 likely voters and has a 4-point margin of error. Hart Research Associates has been named a trusted pollster and has been in business since 1971.