EXCLUSIVE — A new poll shows that Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) is not in danger of losing his seat in deep red Arkansas, despite a July survey suggesting that his Democratic rival was within striking distance of the political upset of the year.
First-time candidate Hallie Shoffner emerged from nowhere to trail Cotton by just 3 points in the poll by 2040 Strategy Group, a progressive campaign firm.
It was an extraordinary result in a state where President Donald Trump triumphed by 30 points less than two years ago.
And it may have been a mirage. A J.L. Partners poll, shared exclusively with Washington Secrets, found that Cotton holds a commanding 16-point lead.
He won the support of 51% of respondents, ahead of Shoffner on 35%, in the poll of 803 registered voters.
Libertarian Jeff Wadlin took 4%, leaving some 11% unsure at this stage of the race.
Still, Cotton’s lead over Shoeffner is smaller than the 33-point margin by which he won reelection in 2020. That year, Democrats didn’t even bother to run a candidate, leaving Cotton to face off against a Libertarian Party candidate who got 33% of the vote.
James Johnson, co-founder of J.L Partners, said, “There’s no doubt that Democrats are doing better in Arkansas than in 2024 or 2020.”
“But unlike some of the commentary floating around, this poll shows this is still a red state that the Republicans have on lock, with a double-digit lead,” said Johnson. “Arkansas is not in play in the Senate this year.”
Democrats need only flip four seats to take control of the Senate this cycle.
Arkansas, which last elected a Democratic senator in 2008, had not been part of the conversation until the shock poll landed in July.
At the time, Shoffner’s campaign manager said it showed the seat was flippable.
“For so long, the story has been that no one should even try, it doesn’t matter, nothing will ever change,” Shoffner’s campaign manager, Anna-Lee Pittman, told the Arkansas Times. “It’s why a sitting senator amassed a $10 million war chest, to get everyone else to pre-surrender. But Hallie is not scared.”
The J.L. Partners poll, conducted over the past four days, shows Cotton underperforming the GOP’s 2024 margins in Arkansas. In that cycle, GOP candidates won every U.S. House seat in the state by an average of 36 points. Still, Cotton leads among most demographic groups and has the support of 89% of Republicans.
WASHINGTON SECRETS — GODZILLA V. THE CHAIRMAN: THE DC GOP’S CIVIL WAR
Cotton’s job approval also remains positive. Some 52% of respondents said they “somewhat” or “strongly” approved of the way he was handling his job as a U.S. senator, compared with 44% who said they disapproved.
Meanwhile, 32% said they approved of his Democratic opponent, and 39% disapproved. However, Shoffner can turn that around during the campaign, with 28% saying they were unsure or did not have a strong feeling either way.
You are reading a bonus edition of Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at [email protected] with your comments, story tips, and suggestions. If a friend sent you this and you’d like to sign up, click here.