South Carolina‘s role as the first-in-the-nation primary for the 2028 presidential field could give former Vice President Kamala Harris a boost over other Democrats should she decide to seek the White House for a third time.
The Palmetto State’s heavily African American electorate helped revive former President Joe Biden‘s campaign in 2020 as he struggled to beat back a progressive challenge from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Eight years later, South Carolina could provide Harris with an opportunity to establish herself as the Democratic front-runner before any other state votes.
“I do think this is a big boost to Kamala Harris,” said Kaivan Shroff, a former 2024 delegate for Harris. “When you consider what the field is going to look like, or at least whose names are being thrown around, it really is a lot of white men and Kamala Harris at this point in time, and so you can imagine a different situation where Iowa was first or a less diverse state, and the sort of obstacles she would face in that case.”
Harris first teased another White House bid in front of a predominantly African American crowd at Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network convention in April.
“I am thinking about it,” she told Sharpton.
Harris is likely to face stiff competition for the 2028 Democratic nomination, including possibly from several high-profile Black Democrats. Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), in particular, are both seen as potential presidential candidates. Unlike Harris, the duo also lacks the baggage of having served in the Biden administration.
“Both of those candidates would really have to build up some sort of momentum that just is not there for them right now,” Shroff said about the two possible contenders. “Kamala Harris has already built a national campaign, yes, in a shortened timeline. But Wes Moore has, for example, been insisting he’s not running. And by the way, I don’t know that it’s his time to do so. He doesn’t have that impressive a record to run on.”
Members of the Democratic National Committee officially approved South Carolina to vote first in 2028 over Iowa and New Hampshire, which have traditionally kicked off the nominating contest, over the weekend as part of the Democratic Party’s desire to prioritize diversity in the early voting states.
Black voters are among the Democratic Party’s most loyal voting blocs. After the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision enabled southern states to eliminate several majority-minority districts, DNC members claimed it was pivotal that South Carolina vote first.
“South Carolina’s earned every right to go first,” said veteran Democratic strategist James Carville. “I think that it is a recognition on the part of the Democratic Party that blacks are essential to our coalition, probably the most loyal part of the coalition, and I’m glad to see that they have a fairly prominent position. It would have been a shame if we’d done anything else.”
But South Carolina’s black electorate is not monolithic, and Harris could face challenges among both younger voters and those looking for a break from the Biden era.
“If Gov. Moore is in the race, he’s an African American male and is more of a generational change a little bit … because he’s much younger than her, would he also garner enough votes to overtake her?” said Douglas Wilson, who also served as a regional field director in South Carolina during former President Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign. “As far as progressives go, that still remains to be seen because a lot of the progressive Left were not really big Kamala fans during the campaign because of the stance in Gaza.”
Some black voters previously told the Washington Examiner they were hesitant to vote for Harris after two Democratic women have lost to President Donald Trump. But Wilson said Harris’s most pressing issue is that she represents the Biden administration, and the party appears to want new leadership.
The Biden-Harris administration’s support of Israel in its battle against Hamas became a significant source of friction between Harris and younger progressive voters during the 2024 campaign.
Another major variable is Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), whose endorsement helped Biden consolidate support among the state’s black voters ahead of his decisive 2020 victory. Any 2028 contender will likely seek the support of Clyburn and the political network surrounding him.
“When you look at the breakdown of the black voters there, it’s still relatively middle-aged to older voters,” Wilson said. “And that’s how Joe Biden was able to win South Carolina because a lot of those voters are still endeared and tied to Clyburn and listen to him.”
DNC APPROVES 2028 PRIMARY SCHEDULE, GIVES SOUTH CAROLINA THE FIRST SPOT
Michael Ceraso, a Democratic strategist who worked on Buttigieg’s presidential campaign, cautioned against oversimplifying the Palmetto State’s African American voters.
“I think it’d be foolish for any operative or consultant or any narrator to say that like Harris can or cannot win South Carolina this early on,” he said. “But I think it’s good to look at her past and how she’s run for office before and take an assessment on that and … what would she do. And I think the past is always a good indicator [of] what someone is gonna do in the present.”
Naomi Lim contributed to this report.