Democrat Xavier Becerra continues to hold a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton in California’s gubernatorial race, but the gap has narrowed as the candidates head toward their November showdown, according to a poll released Thursday.
Becerra leads Hilton 55% to 37% among likely voters in a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted in partnership with the Los Angeles Times, giving the former congressman and Biden Cabinet secretary an 18-point advantage.
That is a sizable margin in a state where Democrats hold a dominant statewide advantage, but it represents a notable shift from the previous month, when Becerra led Hilton by 25 points, 61% to 36%.
The Aug. 3-9 survey of 2,310 likely voters suggests Hilton has made modest progress while Becerra has given up some of the support he enjoyed earlier in the campaign. The Republican’s single-point increase is small, but the movement comes as Hilton attempts to make the race competitive in a state where Democrats have won every presidential election since 1988.
The numbers nevertheless leave Becerra in a strong position heading into the Nov. 3 election to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who is term-limited. Newsom is widely expected to announce a 2028 presidential run.
Becerra spokesperson Jonathan Underland said the poll serves as “further confirmation that California voters support Secretary Becerra’s focus on lowering the cost of living for California’s working families and standing up against the hateful and disastrous policies pushed by Trump and his endorsed candidate, Steve Hilton.”
Hilton, a former Fox News host and adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, faces the difficult task of breaking through California’s heavily Democratic electorate while capitalizing on voter frustration over affordability, homelessness, regulation, and the state’s business climate.
The poll underlines that challenge.
“In a state where Republicans have only 25% of registered voters, and independents lean heavily Democratic, it’s totally predictable that this governor’s race will be a blowout for Becerra,” California-based veteran political expert Garry South told the Washington Examiner. “The last four governor’s races have been won by the Democrat with 59%, 62%, 60%, and 54% of the vote. No reason to think this one will be any different.”
According to the most recent poll, Becerra has the backing of 88% of Democrats, while 91% of Republicans support Hilton. More importantly for Hilton, Becerra is also winning among voters who do not identify with either major party, leading 58% to 30%.
That independent advantage could make it difficult for Hilton to close the statewide gap unless he makes significant gains with voters who typically lean Democratic.
“Hilton would need to make major inroads among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups to make this a highly competitive race,” said Eric Schickler, a political science professor and codirector of the Berkeley IGS poll.
Still, the poll offers Hilton some evidence that his message is resonating beyond the Republican base in California, where a GOP governor was last elected in 2006.
Among Hilton supporters, 55% said they backed him because of his positions on traditionally Republican issues such as cutting taxes and reducing regulations. Another 28% cited his outsider status and opposition to California’s political establishment.
Hilton has campaigned to eliminate state income taxes on the first $150,000 of annual earnings, reduce regulations, and expand oil production to bring gasoline prices down.
At a political conference in Sacramento, Hilton argued that California needs a fundamental shift in its economic policies.
“I think it’s an absolute crisis that we’re in if we don’t change direction,” Hilton said.
Trump’s endorsement of Hilton appears to be a much smaller factor among Republican voters. Only 4% of Hilton supporters cited the president’s endorsement as a reason for their support.
The poll also shows Becerra with a stronger personal image than Hilton. Forty-nine percent of likely voters view Becerra favorably, compared with 43% who view him unfavorably. Hilton is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 50%.
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Geographically, the race reflects California’s political map. Becerra holds substantial advantages in Los Angeles and San Diego counties, the Bay Area, and the Central Coast. Hilton performs better in the more conservative Central Valley, North Coast, and Sierra regions.
Orange County and the Inland Empire, two politically important areas that have become more competitive in recent elections, are much closer.