The car that starts in the driveway. The hospital that stays lit during a power outage. The data center that keeps the internet running. The military vehicle that moves when ordered. All of it depends on a narrow set of critical minerals and on the industrial capacity to transform those minerals into something usable.
President Donald Trump and leaders in Washington have made critical minerals a priority again. That is the right instinct. For years, America ceded control of the raw materials that underpin its economy and military for the sake of free-trade dogma. The Trump administration deserves credit for taking necessary steps to revitalize America’s raw materials supply chain, including permitting reform, leading the push to reopen mines, and expanding deep-sea mining.
But the mines are not the chokepoint. The refineries are.
The battle for critical minerals is not where they come from — it is where they get transformed into something usable. As a recent joint report from the Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Responsible Battery Coalition concluded, processing and refining is arguably the most decisive stage in the supply chain.
Ore does not go into a battery, a weapons system, or a power grid. Refined, processed, industrial-grade material does. The country that controls that conversion controls the supply chain, the pricing, and ultimately the industrial capacity of every nation downstream.
Right now, that country is China.
The Chinese Communist Party has spent decades engineering leverage. Where it saw critical materials needed for the global economy and national militaries, it built the processing and refining capacity that sits at the center of the value chain. Where it lacked natural reserves, it secured them through debt diplomacy. Wherever international agreements relied on good-faith compliance, China leveraged the benefits while sidestepping the obligations.
The result is a chokehold on the stage of the supply chain that matters most, and a demonstrated willingness to use it.
Consider antimony. The mineral is used in ammunition, night-vision equipment, and the starter batteries of nearly every military vehicle and vessel. When Beijing restricted antimony exports in 2024, global prices surged almost 200%. A single refining chokepoint of a mineral most Americans have never heard of sent shockwaves through industries that otherwise operate almost entirely inside the United States. That was just a preview.
Similarly, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite are mined across Australia, Chile, Africa, and North America, or can be found on the ocean floor, but most must be shipped to China before returning as battery-grade inputs. That arrangement gives the CCP power to swing global prices at will, grows its manufacturing sector, creates jobs and growth in China, and makes it nearly impossible for Western companies to finance competing refining capacity. If investors believe China will flood the market the moment a rival refinery opens, they will not invest the needed capital.
Breaking that cycle demands an honest question: Are we serious about securing our supply chains?
If we are, there are clear steps to take back the refinery.
Federal offtake agreements and procurement for defense systems, government fleets, and critical infrastructure must prioritize materials refined in the United States or by trusted allies. Minerals mined in friendly countries but refined by Chinese-controlled companies still leave us dependent on Beijing. Ownership of the refining stage, not just mining rights, must determine eligibility for federal incentives and procurement programs.
We must also protect the processing and refining capacity we are building. The EXIM Bank’s Project Vault, a U.S. strategic reserve initiative designed to secure critical minerals for American businesses, is especially important for building stockpiles and removing the commercial risk American companies face from maintaining materials beyond what just-in-time supply chains demand.
America already leads the world in battery recycling. Domestic manufacturers recover roughly 99% of the lead and also much of the antimony in spent starter batteries, a genuine strategic asset.
The 45X federal tax credit, maintained in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, must be preserved in full until we have a secure supply chain from the mine to the factory floor. 45X currently has loopholes allowing Chinese companies to pose as American ones, undercutting domestic manufacturing while subsidizing the CCP’s defense industrial base. Congress and Treasury must close ownership, licensing, and supply chain loopholes by expanding the “foreign entity of concern” definition to capture debt structures, minority equity stakes, and other similar arrangements.
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Trump is right that America must mine again. But mining without refining is like trying to start a car with no battery. The vehicle is there, but it isn’t going anywhere.
We will not reclaim the refinery overnight. But until we treat processing and refining capacity with real urgency, we will remain exposed to supply shocks that begin in Beijing and end on our doorstep.
Maj. Gen. William “Bill” Crane (Ret.) is the former Adjutant General of the West Virginia National Guard. He serves as Chair of the Responsible Battery Coalition’s Critical Minerals Leadership Roundtable.