Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) leads the crowded field of potential Democratic presidential contenders among New Hampshire voters, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has narrowed Vice President JD Vance’s lead in the Republican race, according to a new poll.
The recent poll surveyed likely 2028 presidential primary voters in New Hampshire between July 15 and July 20. While no candidates have formally launched campaigns, the survey offers a glimpse into the race in the nation’s first presidential primary state.
AOC leads Democratic field
Among likely Democratic primary voters, 22% said they would support Ocasio-Cortez if the primary were held today, edging out former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 21%.
Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) followed with 9%, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) received 8%, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) drew 6%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris garnered 5%. No other potential candidate reached more than 2%.
Support for Ocasio-Cortez has increased seven points since February, while Newsom’s support fell 7 points, and Harris dropped 5 points. The poll found Ocasio-Cortez’s backing comes largely from self-described socialists and progressives.
Buttigieg, by contrast, draws support more evenly from progressives, liberals, and moderates. Kelly performs best among liberals, while Newsom’s support is concentrated among moderates.
Supporters of Ocasio-Cortez most frequently cited her policies and political ideology as the reason for backing her. Buttigieg and Kelly supporters most often pointed to their qualifications and competence.
Despite growing speculation about a White House bid, Ocasio-Cortez has repeatedly declined to say whether she plans to run.
“My ambition is to change this country,” the congresswoman said in May when asked about a possible 2028 campaign. “Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever.”
Rubio cuts into Vance’s Republican lead
On the Republican side, Vance remains the frontrunner, but Rubio has made substantial gains over the past several months.
Among likely Republican primary voters, 36% said they would back Vance, while 26% chose Rubio. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley each received 8%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 6%, former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard at 4%, and Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) at 2%.
Rubio’s support has jumped 19 points since February, while Vance’s has declined 17 points over the same period. The poll found Vance’s support is strongest among conservatives, while Rubio performs better with moderates and libertarians.
About two-thirds of Republican voters said they want the party’s 2028 nominee to continue President Donald Trump’s agenda rather than chart a different course. However, fewer than half said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate.
Republican voters often cited candidates’ policies, experience, and qualifications as the reasons for their support. Vance supporters most frequently pointed to his qualifications, values, and experience, while Rubio supporters emphasized his experience and competence.
Other candidates struggle
Several Democrats frequently mentioned as possible 2028 contenders failed to register meaningful support in the poll.
Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), and Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) all remained in the single digits.
Pritzker has repeatedly downplayed speculation that he plans to seek the presidency.
“Not at all,” Pritzker said when asked if he was preparing a White House campaign. “I literally, I’m running for reelection as governor because we have a whole lot more work to do in the state.”
Still, he has stopped short of ruling out a future bid. Last year, Pritzker told NBC’s Meet the Press that he “can’t rule anything out,” and in June said he expects to play a significant role in the 2028 election.
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Other Democrats, including Newsom and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, have fueled speculation by increasing their national profiles, though many party leaders remain focused on the 2026 midterm elections before making presidential decisions.
The Granite State Poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from July 15 to 20. Researchers surveyed 1,458 New Hampshire residents online, including members of the Granite State Panel and respondents recruited by text message. The survey has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.