President Donald Trump is showing little sign of becoming a lame duck inside the Republican Party, even as the GOP braces for difficult midterm elections.
That dynamic was on full display this week after five Indiana Republican state senators lost primaries to Trump-backed challengers. The lawmakers were targeted for bucking Trump’s push for mid-decade redistricting aimed at boosting the GOP’s chances of holding the U.S. House of Representatives.
Most presidents lose political leverage in their second term. Trump, at least for now, appears to be gaining it.
“The MAGA movement is Donald Trump’s own creation,” said Gregg Keller, a GOP strategist who runs Lone Star Liberty PAC, which supports Attorney General Ken Paxton’s primary challenge against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
“He understands that coalition and those voters better than anyone else in American politics, and when he takes a political course of action that is in line with his political base, he is going to win,” Keller added.
The Texas Senate primary is a prime example of Trump’s enduring power even as nervousness about the midterm elections abounds.
Cornyn has struggled to reassure MAGA voters frustrated with what they view as insufficient loyalty to the president, leaving the longtime senator politically vulnerable against Paxton.
Republican strategists say the lesson from Indiana is clear: crossing Trump still carries enormous political risk inside the GOP.
“He commands unmatched influence within the Republican base, exceeding even Ronald Reagan,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist with ties in Washington and Florida. “He has a mandate with the Republican base to continue to push the America First agenda, and anyone who gets in his way may well pay a political price. His endorsement isn’t gold, it’s platinum.”
Trump has not endorsed in Texas despite Cornyn and Paxton’s attempts to win the coveted presidential backing. But the president has already moved to use his influence against other Republicans who have defied his agenda.
The president has endorsed primary challengers against Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY). Cassidy famously voted to impeach Trump in 2021 over the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. Massie, meanwhile, urged the president to work with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and force the Department of Justice to release troves of files related to disgraced convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
If both lawmakers lose their primaries, it would only further cement Trump’s grip over the GOP and likely discourage other Republicans from breaking publicly with the president during his final years in office.
“Incumbent politicians don’t just get to keep their seats because they’ve been there forever,” said Jordan Ohler, a GOP strategist based in Ohio. “Just because you’re in a tough environment doesn’t mean you get to turn your back on the American people when it comes to these important issues, just because you’ve got to play the middle a little bit more. I think those days are over.”
Trump’s show of force comes at a politically precarious moment for Republicans.
The GOP faces mounting headwinds ahead of the midterm elections, including backlash over the Iran war, rising gas prices, and Trump’s slipping approval ratings.
Democrats overperformed in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races last year and have won the majority of special election contests held since Trump returned to the White House.
Yet, Republicans in Washington have shown little appetite for breaking publicly with the president.
GOP lawmakers in the House and Senate have repeatedly blocked war powers resolutions to rein in Trump’s ability to wage war with Iran. Republicans have also lined up behind Trump’s border policies, despite outrage from Democrats over the fatal shooting of two U.S. citizens by Immigration and Customs Enforcement earlier this year.
Still, some Republicans argue the political environment is not nearly as bleak as Democrats hope.
O’Connell pointed to aggressive Republican-led redistricting efforts across multiple states, along with recent Supreme Court decisions weakening portions of the Voting Rights Act, as factors that could help the GOP blunt a potential midterm election backlash.
“We’re in a new era of mid-decade redistricting,” he said. “And it’s such that Republicans, between this and getting gas prices down, could conceivably hold the House.”
Several states, including Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Tennessee, are attempting to redraw new maps as quickly as possible to create more GOP-friendly districts.
Trump’s “legacy is going to be teaching people how to fight like he does,” Ohler said of the efforts. “If you’re not locked in on this fight to protect our country against all these things the Democrats would do in Congress, then, you’re gonna get fired.”
Keller, who is running Paxton’s PAC, even suggested Trump’s power over the GOP will last for the rest of his life.
TRUMP’S INDIANA VICTORY SPELLS TROUBLE FOR MASSIE AND CASSIDY ELECTION SURVIVAL
“He will remain the most powerful person in the party and in the movement as long as he lives,” said Keller.
For now, at least, Indiana offered the clearest sign yet that Republicans still see crossing Trump as a far greater political risk than standing beside him, even in a difficult election environment.