Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico is narrowly leading both potential Republican opponents in a new survey of the Texas U.S. Senate race, offering Democrats fresh optimism in a state that has long eluded the party.
A poll conducted by nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research from April 17 to 20 found Talarico ahead of Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), though both matchups remain within the survey’s margin of error, underscoring what is becoming one of the closest and most expensive Senate contests of the 2026 cycle.
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Among 1,018 likely general election voters, Talarico leads Cornyn 44% to 41%, with 11% undecided. His 3-point edge is driven by strong support among black voters, Latino voters, and college-educated voters.
Talarico also posts a slim advantage over Paxton, continuing a trend seen in several recent polls that show the Democrat competitive against either Republican nominee.
Cornyn and Paxton are set to face off in a May 26 runoff to determine who will advance to the general election. Talarico secured his own nomination earlier this month after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) in a competitive Democratic runoff.
The Republican contenders draw their strongest backing from white, non-college-educated, and rural voters, according to TPOR. Talarico leads college-educated voters by 10 points against Cornyn and 14 points against Paxton, while each Republican holds only narrow advantages among non-college voters.
The race has drawn national attention as President Donald Trump has yet to endorse either Republican candidate, despite both seeking the president’s backing. It is also shaping up as one of the most expensive Texas primaries on record, with Talarico reporting $27 million raised in the first quarter alone. Cornyn, by comparison, brought in $9 million, while Paxton trails further below his fellow Republican.
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The poll lands as Democrats have performed well in recent special elections this cycle, boosting party hopes that traditionally red states are more in play in 2026. A competitive Texas Senate race would test whether those gains can translate beyond low-turnout special elections into a full statewide contest.
Still, Democrats face a steep climb. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and past cycles have featured favorable polling that failed to translate into Election Day victories.