The race to become California’s next governor was already a mess for Democrats, but bombshell allegations of sexual misconduct by its front-runner, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), have turned it into a disaster and put the party in need of a quick reset ahead of the June 2 primary.
Four women came forward with accusations of sexual misconduct against Swalwell, including claims that he sexually assaulted a former aide on two occasions while she was under the influence and unable to consent.
Swalwell forcefully rejected the allegations as “completely untrue.” Still, the fallout has been swift: Senior campaign staff resigned, labor groups withdrew their backing, his campaign donations page was taken down, and powerful allies, such as Sens. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Adam Schiff (D-CA), very publicly cut ties.
The rapid unraveling of Swalwell’s operation over the past 72 hours underscored both his limited political standing in California and the ruthlessness of party insiders, who eviscerated him on social media.
The weekend pile-on from other Democrats, such as Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) were brutal and evoked memories of the sudden, overwhelming pressure former President Joe Biden felt to step aside in 2024 when Democratic leaders decided he was no longer the man for the moment.
By the end of the weekend, Swalwell suspended his campaign.
“I am suspending my campaign for Governor,” Swalwell said on X. “To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past. I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.”
Meanwhile, Republican contender Steve Hilton, now a leading figure in the race, recently secured an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Hilton told the Washington Examiner the allegations against Swalwell had “been an open secret for years” and sharply criticized those who previously backed him.
“It’s obvious that all these people in the Democrat establishments, the big unions, the teacher unions, SEIU, Adam Schiff, all the Pelosi acolytes in Congress who endorsed him and backed him, they all knew, but they backed him anyway,” Hilton said. “It exactly shows the arrogance and cynicism and corruption you get with one-party rule. … All they care about is their power. That’s all they care about, and now they’re coming out with all this fake outrage, even though they knew all along and endorsed him anyway and backed him anyway. It is just so contemptuous of regular people and their needs.”
With Swalwell out, the Democratic primary is once again wide open.
“The Swalwell collapse and withdrawal certainly changes the race among the Democratic field,” veteran California strategist Garry South told the Washington Examiner. “But we have to remember that even as the nominal front-runner, he was only in the teens, so the question ‘Where will the Swalwell voters go?’ doesn’t really fundamentally realign the race. The biggest question, in my view, is whether [candidate Tom] Steyer, who despite all his money — $120 million spent so far — can pull himself up from his 12% showing in the polls and become the top-polling Democrat for the first time. It really remains to be seen how the race plays out among the Democrats from this point forward.”
Jeff Burton, co-founding partner at Maven Advocacy, pointed to a broader lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters for the party’s current situation.
“There’s an enthusiasm gap in the Democratic field, that’s how Swalwell rose and why Republicans are polling 1-2,” the Republican strategist told the Washington Examiner. “Now that he’s out, it’s a scramble for his support, but Katie Porter seems to be the closest fit for his voters.”
Before the controversy, Swalwell had consistently polled near the top of a crowded primary field that included eight Democrats and two Republicans vying to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA). Under California’s “jungle primary” system, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.
A recent poll from Binder Research, conducted before the allegations surfaced, showed Hilton leading with 22% support, followed by Swalwell at 18%. In a typical cycle, Democrats might expect to consolidate support behind a single candidate in the general election, but this year’s fragmented field has complicated that assumption.
Concerns that vote-splitting could produce an unexpected outcome have prompted Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party, to urge lower-performing candidates to step aside. In an open letter, Hicks warned that internal divisions and ego-driven campaigns could give Republicans a viable path to the governor’s office.
DOES IT MATTER THAT ERIC SWALWELL IS MARRIED?
While Democrats still hold a strong advantage in the deep-blue state, strategists increasingly worry that the state’s primary system could upend expectations. With so many Democrats dividing the vote, there is a scenario, however unlikely, in which two Republicans advance to November, shutting Democrats out entirely.
Such an outcome could have national implications. Party leaders fear that a general election without a Democrat at the top of the ticket could dampen turnout statewide, potentially jeopardizing key congressional races as Democrats seek to reclaim control of the House.