(The Center Square) — Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a 20-point advantage over Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik in a general election matchup, according to a new poll.
The Siena College survey of about 800 likely New York voters, released Tuesday, shows the incumbent governor leading Stefanik by 52-32% and a commanding lead, 56-16%, in a Democratic primary against Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado statewide and across most demographics. Still, the poll shows Hochul’s favorability has dropped five points from a September poll.
“Although Hochul saw both her favorability and job approval ratings slip a little, she continues to dominate Delgado among Democrats in a potential primary, and she maintains a strong lead over Stefanik the week after Stefanik declared her candidacy,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement.
Hochul continues to have strong support from Democrats, 78-9%; however, Stefanik has now widened her lead among Republicans, 79-11%, up from 68-15% in September, and significantly narrowed the gap among independents, with whom Hochul now leads 40-36%, down from 43-25% in September, Greenberg said.
“Hochul has a 42-point lead in New York City but leads by only nine points in the downstate suburbs and a very narrow three points upstate,” he said.
Stefanik, who represents New York’s 21st Congressional District, launched her bid for governor two weeks ago, criticizing Hochul as “America’s worst governor” and seeking to tie her to Democratic socialist and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s controversial platform.
The five-term congresswoman could still face a GOP primary challenge from Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who is signaling he may seek the party’s nomination to take on Hochul next year.
Hochul took over the governor’s job in August 2021 after then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned amid sexual harassment allegations and won a full four-year term in the 2022 elections after defeating Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin. Hochul announced in July 2024 that she will seek a second full term in the 2026 election. Delgado announced his challenge to Hochul in July.
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The Siena College poll also found Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s favorability ratings have cratered, with the top New York Democrat viewed unfavorably by 74% of Republicans and 61% of independents. Among Democrats, his favorability rating is barely positive, 45-43%, down from 52-36% in September, pollsters found.
“Schumer is viewed unfavorably by a plurality of New York City voters, and strong majorities of downstate suburbanites and upstaters,” Greenberg said. “At the same time, it’s worth noting that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has an overall 42-37% favorability rating. But it’s 62-20% with Democrats and 55-27% with City voters.”