Michigan Democrats have spent years building one of the party’s most successful statewide operations, but Abdul el Sayed’s rise in the Senate primary is testing whether the coalition that powered those victories can survive the party’s deepening ideological divisions.
Ahead of Tuesday’s primary to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), the contest between el Sayed, a former public health official, and Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) has become the latest and most consequential battle over the Democratic Party’s direction.
Establishment Democrats point to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s (D-MI) two commanding victories and Sen. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-MI) narrow 2024 win as evidence that pragmatic candidates can prevail in a state President Donald Trump carried twice. Progressives counter that the party’s traditional approach has failed to deliver on economic and environmental priorities or prevent Trump from remaining competitive in Michigan. Now, el Sayed appears positioned to put both arguments to the test.
Despite being heavily outspent by outside groups supporting Stevens, el Sayed has surged in the closing weeks of the campaign. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows him leading Stevens 50.5% to 40.3%, with one recent survey giving him a 15-point advantage.
“Campaigns aren’t won in the last two weeks — good campaigns are won in the first year,” el Sayed said during a recent stop in downtown Detroit. “Money can’t buy trust. You’ve got to go build it, brick by brick, and that’s exactly what we’ve done.”
A high-stakes debate over electability
With control of the Senate potentially at stake, Stevens and her allies have made electability the centerpiece of their closing argument.
A July 22-24 Glengariff poll commissioned by the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan showed Stevens in a statistical tie with Rogers, 46% to 45%. El Sayed trailed Rogers by 10 points in the same survey, 49% to 39%. During Monday’s final primary debate, Stevens cited the numbers as evidence that Republicans are eager to face el Sayed in November.
“Abdul is running for celebrity. Republicans are propping up his campaign,” Stevens said, referencing a report that Rogers privately told donors his campaign would be in “good shape” if el Sayed won the nomination.
Some prominent national Democrats have echoed those concerns.
“It means that that puts that seat really, really in play, absolutely,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) told CNN last week regarding an el Sayed nomination. “And that if he wins, that means there will be a celebration over the GOP 100%. Now that he is a big target, and now he’s said a lot of outlandish things, so that would put that seat there and then makes it even more difficult for us to recapture the majority.”
Matt Bennett, co-founder of the centrist Democratic group Third Way, argued that Michigan presents a far greater risk for Democrats than the heavily Democratic districts where socialist candidates have recently prevailed.
“Unlike in New York or Denver or Philly, you have a swing seat that really matters, where we could lose in the general,” Bennett said.
El Sayed’s supporters reject the premise that Stevens is the safer choice. They argue that his grassroots organization and appeal to voters dissatisfied with both parties could make him a formidable general-election candidate. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who has campaigned with el Sayed alongside Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), dismissed the establishment’s warnings.
“What’s going on in Michigan right now is that the billionaire class and their super PACs are now spending over $60 million to defeat el Sayed,” Sanders told CNN on Wednesday, pointing to the United Democracy Project, the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has spent millions supporting Stevens. “If the question is, who is the stronger candidate against Rogers, I think it is el Sayed. There is an energy in his campaign right now, a lot of grassroots activism. He has many, many thousands of people out knocking on doors, and in my view, that’s the way you win elections.”
Israel divides the Democratic coalition
Israel has emerged as one of the clearest dividing lines in the primary and one of the most significant threats to Democrats’ statewide coalition.
Michigan is home to large Arab American and Muslim communities that fueled the “uncommitted” movement during the 2024 Democratic presidential primary. The state also has a long-standing Jewish community, concentrated heavily in suburban Detroit, that has traditionally formed an important part of the Democratic base.
Those tensions have intensified amid growing fears about antisemitism. Earlier this year, an attacker drove a vehicle carrying flammable materials into Temple Israel in West Bloomfield, sparking a fire inside the synagogue. Against that backdrop, Stevens and el Sayed have presented voters with sharply different positions on Israel.
Stevens has described herself as a “proud pro-Israel Democrat.” El Sayed has criticized her support for military aid to Israel, highlighting her vote against a House amendment that would have blocked funding and accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza.
El Sayed’s position has prompted some longtime Jewish Democrats to reconsider their loyalty to the party. Several Jewish donors and community leaders recently told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency that they could support Rogers if el Sayed becomes the nominee.
The primary is also a monumental moment for AIPAC. The pro-Israel organization and affiliated groups have spent roughly $30 million boosting Stevens, the most they have ever invested in a single race, according to the Associated Press.
Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) warned that alienating Jewish voters could permanently reshape the state’s political landscape.
“The Democratic Party has a long-standing history of Jewish support. For most Jewish voters, they are going to vote for Democrats,” Nessel told the Washington Examiner. “Pushing us out of the party, and trafficking in antisemitism, trafficking in looking for support from those who make antisemitic statements or engage in antisemitic rhetoric, is a dangerous thing, but it’s also really bad for the party. If Jewish voters leave the party, they won’t easily be replaced.”
Speaking Thursday at a roundtable with Jewish leaders and community members, Nessel said she would not attend the Michigan Democratic Party’s nominating convention because she fears being harassed over her support for Israel.
“I feel like my presence isn’t going to be welcome. I don’t want to get chased around. I don’t want to get harassed. I don’t want to get yelled and screamed at,” Nessel said. “I believe that if I go, that is what will happen because it’s been happening to me.”
A test of the Michigan Democratic model
The primary has also exposed uncertainty among some of Michigan’s most prominent Democrats. Slotkin and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg have remained on the sidelines, even as Stevens secured endorsements from Whitmer, Peters, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
For Michigan strategists, Tuesday’s outcome will reveal whether Democratic primary voters remain committed to the pragmatic coalition that delivered years of statewide success or are prepared to embrace a more ideological vision for the party.
“It’s a test of, is the Democratic Party still a vehicle for winning elections, or is it a vehicle for advancing progressive ideological priorities?” said Adrian Hemond, a veteran Michigan Democratic strategist. “I don’t think anyone who pays much attention to politics thinks that Abdul el Sayed is a stronger general election candidate in a swing state. If primary voters care more about winning general elections and securing political power, he probably won’t win. But if they care most about advancing progressive ideological priorities, Abdul will win the primary and will be something of an anchor around downballot Democrats in Michigan.”
Hemond noted that Michigan has elected only two Republican U.S. senators since 1951.
“It’s a purple state, but we do not send Republicans to the United States Senate,” Hemond said. “If Abdul gets the nomination and is not elected, that’s not a great sign for the electability of progressives in competitive elections.”
The debate is unfolding with unusually high stakes. Michigan is widely viewed as Republicans’ best opportunity to flip a Democrat-held Senate seat after Peters’s retirement. Republicans have once again nominated former Rep. Mike Rogers, who came within roughly 20,000 votes of defeating Slotkin last year. With Trump having carried Michigan twice, Republicans believe the state’s political landscape gives them one of their best chances to reclaim a Senate seat and inch closer to the majority.
But not every Republican believes el Sayed would be the easier opponent.
Dennis Lennox, a Michigan-based Republican strategist, cautioned his party against celebrating an el Sayed nomination.
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“I’ve been one of the few voices saying Republicans need to be careful what they wish for in Michigan,” Lennox said. “El Sayed as the Democrat nominee would be very dangerous — and not just dangerous in terms of his policies. Republicans underestimate his candidacy and his appeal, including to Trump 2016 voters who thought the Swamp would be drained.”
Tuesday’s primary will decide more than who faces Rogers this fall. It will provide the clearest test yet of whether the coalition that powered Michigan Democrats to years of statewide victories remains the party’s blueprint for winning, or whether Democratic voters are ready to chart a different course.
David Sivak contributed to this report.