The three Republicans vying to become the next GOP leader in the Senate will make their closing arguments at a candidate forum held hours before members cast their secret ballots on Wednesday.
No matter who succeeds Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the election will usher in a new generation of leadership. McConnell, who has led Senate Republicans since 2007, is the longest-serving party leader in U.S. history.
Each of the contenders, Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD) and Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL), has in some shape or form attempted to present himself as a break from the status quo, promising not to pursue the same top-down leadership style that turned conservatives against McConnell across his two-decade tenure.
But some have done so more aggressively than others, with Thune aligning himself most closely with McConnell and Scott representing a restive right flank that wants major reforms to the way the Senate is run. Cornyn has placed himself somewhere in the middle.
Leadership style is just one fault line that will come up at the candidate forum, a Q&A session scheduled for Tuesday. Scott has successfully made allegiance to President-elect Donald Trump another litmus test as he promotes himself as the MAGA candidate in the race.
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Meanwhile, Thune and Cornyn will want to emphasize their legislative experience and fundraising ability. Both have held the No. 2 position in leadership and have spent the last year raising tens of millions for their colleagues.
Here is how the Senate contenders will pitch themselves when they return from their post-election recess on Tuesday.
Experience
From the start, Thune was thought to have a slight edge in the race given he currently occupies the role of whip. He’s built strong relationships across six years as the top GOP vote-counter and temporarily ran the conference when McConnell suffered a concussion last year.
Thune’s allies cite his weeks keeping the conference afloat as evidence he’s prepared for the job.
Cornyn, too, has emphasized his tenure in leadership. He was term-limited out of the whip position in 2018 and, before that, led Senate Republicans’ campaign arm for two cycles.
But he’s placed arguably more emphasis on his track record as a fundraiser. Across two decades in the Senate, Cornyn, who represents donor-rich Texas, has raised more than $400 million, most of which has gone to candidates or the party apparatus.
Thune has sought to neutralize that perceived advantage, demonstrating that he can keep pace with Cornyn. Both brought in $33 million this past election cycle.
Meanwhile, Scott avoided the jockeying altogether as he campaigned for a second term to his Florida Senate seat. He, too, served in a leadership post, chairing the Senate campaign arm in 2022, but his tenure was marked by public feuding with McConnell and, ultimately, the loss of a seat in Pennsylvania.
Instead, Scott, a former healthcare executive, has emphasized his business background, painting himself as a disruptor who knows how to build consensus and get things done.
Rules changes
Scott is viewed as more of a long shot for leader. He only received 10 votes when he challenged McConnell for the top job in 2022, and it’s thought his ceiling is somewhere close to that this time around, too.
But Scott has a real constituency within the conference, one that wants to see the next leader diminish his power in exchange for their vote.
Scott is expected to again have the Senate’s conservatives in his corner on Wednesday. In announcing his leader run in May, he committed to a slate of changes including a “robust” amendment process and more time for members to review major pieces of legislation before taking a vote.
But Cornyn, and to a lesser extent Thune, have also courted their support.
Like Scott, Cornyn has committed to term limits for the leader post and has promised to end the “backroom deals” that have come to define the appropriations process.
Thune’s overtures are less specific, but he, too, has promised to “empower our individual members” and return the Senate to regular order. He has so far resisted the call for term limits for the top leadership job.
Cornyn’s greater openness to reforms could matter if the leadership election goes to a second round and Scott ranks last. In that scenario, Scott would be eliminated from the ballot, leaving Cornyn and Thune to fight over his votes.
So far, five Senate Republicans have publicly announced their support for Scott, compared to two for Thune and one for Cornyn.
The Trump factor
Trump has taken an interest in the leadership race since winning a second term in the White House. He’s been asking allies for feedback on each of the candidates and even making demands of them.
On Sunday, Trump said the next GOP leader must short-circuit the Senate confirmation process by allowing recess appointments so he can get his Cabinet in place quickly.
Trump has no direct say over who gets chosen as leader on Wednesday. That responsibility will fall to the current and incoming senators who participate in the secret ballot.
But Trump could wade in with a late endorsement, making him the biggest wild card in the final hours of the race.
Thune and Cornyn have spent months realigning themselves with Trump, establishing regular contact and fundraising for his campaign. They had previously urged the party to move past him following his 2020 election defeat.
But Scott is far and away the most Trumpy of the three and has MAGA heavyweights like X CEO Elon Musk advocating on his behalf.
It’s unclear how much a Trump endorsement would move the needle for Scott, if he gets one. Trump already endorsed Scott’s first leadership run in 2022 to limited effect.
Still, Thune has moved to ward off the possibility with public pleas that he stay neutral in the contest.
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In the meantime, Trump’s intervention is giving senators early insight into how each candidate would govern in his second term.
Scott indicated he was “100%” ready to follow Trump’s lead on recess appointments, amounting to a major break in Senate norms. Meanwhile, Thune and Cornyn both expressed openness to Trump’s request but did not make any public commitments.