OMAHA, Nebraska — Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) was at ease, mingling with supporters and reconnecting with close friends in a small backroom of Johnny’s Cafe in a city that’s become an unlikely 2024 epicenter.
Dozens of voters exchanged niceties and took photos with one another as they grabbed drinks from the bar, piled their plates with food, and tucked themselves away into the booths and tables scattered around the room. They were there to support Bacon in the final stretch of his campaign as he battles for his political life in a district that could determine who controls the House and even the presidency.
But the Midwestern nice gathering on Wednesday also represented a test of whether a more centrist Republican who is not a full-throated Donald Trump supporter can survive in today’s politics.
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As Bacon made the rounds greeting supporters, he was joined by Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), who traveled more than 1,000 miles to stump for the Nebraska incumbent ahead of Nov. 5. Gonzales is just the latest of several GOP lawmakers and party leaders to campaign for Bacon as vies for another term in the swing district.
“It’s very simple why I’m here,” Gonzales told the crowd. “We have a country to save, and we need General Don Bacon in order to save that country.”
The race for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District has been one of the most competitive elections of the 2024 cycle. The race was initially rated as a tossup for the months leading up to Nov. 5 before the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted it to “Lean Democrat” just four days before Election Day.
The district, which covers much of the Omaha-Council Bluffs metropolitan area, has long been considered a blue dot in a deeply red state, putting Bacon at risk as he vies for another term.
Despite being a predominantly blue district, Bacon has managed to repeatedly defeat his Democratic opponents since first being elected in 2017 — even when President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump there in 2020.
Nebraska operates under a congressional district method, meaning the state allocates two electoral votes to the candidate who wins the statewide popular vote and then awards one electoral vote to the winner of the popular vote in each congressional district. As a result, Bacon’s 2nd Congressional District holds one of the most coveted electoral votes in the country as it could have an outsize influence on who wins not only the House but also the presidential race.
As a result, the district is receiving increased attention as Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to sweep its Electoral College vote and spur voter turnout, something Bacon’s Democratic challenger is hoping to use to his advantage.
“The energy on the ground is real,” state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-NE) told the Washington Examiner. “The motivation is real. People are excited.”
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It doesn’t help that Bacon is faced with a unique paradox in the evenly split district: The Republican incumbent must convince independents and even some Democrats to support his bid while running on the same ticket as Trump, who is trailing Harris in the polls in the 2nd District.
Vargas is hoping to tie Bacon to Trump, accusing the GOP incumbent of being “unwilling and unable to stand up against his own party when he has disagreements.” Vargas specifically pointed to the bipartisan border bill that failed to pass the Senate last year after Trump came out in opposition.
“The main reason it didn’t get out of the Senate [and] didn’t move to the House is because Donald Trump told members of his party to not solve this problem of border security because it was politically expedient,” Vargas said. “And everybody fell in line, and that included Don Bacon.”
But while Bacon must rely on Trump to motivate voter turnout among Republicans in his district, the GOP incumbent has sought to distance himself from the former president in some ways.
Bacon recalled a moment when a former Omaha mayor challenged him for his support of Trump’s candidacy, asking, “How can you vote for a guy like Trump?”
“It wasn’t my choice. I think I would prefer Nikki Haley [or] Tim Scott. In 2016 I was a [Sen. Marco] Rubio guy, you know, so not my choice,” Bacon told the Washington Examiner in an interview. “But this is the choice we have … I told the mayor that everybody has the right to vote on what motivates them the most. Everybody has different priorities.”
For him, Bacon said his priorities include immigration, the economy, and foreign policy — areas he believes Trump has handled better than the Biden-Harris administration.
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Bacon has also relied heavily on his voting record, pointing to reports that show him as one of the top 10 bipartisan members of the House. That makes him the most qualified to represent the district, he said, as the 2nd District is rated as evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, according to the Cook Political Report.
Bacon cited support for Biden’s infrastructure bill and increased protections for DACA recipients as well as his vote to certify the 2020 election results despite some Republican opposition.
“That’s probably a redline for a lot of Democrats right there,” Bacon said of his certification vote. “I have a lot of votes like that that I think people recognize” as bipartisan.
That voting record, Bacon hopes, will attract the Democratic support he needs to eke out a victory.
And so far, it’s worked on some key Democratic figures — such as Ann Ashford, who ran against Vargas in the Democratic primary but has since endorsed Bacon in the general election.
“What pushed me over the edge to say that I absolutely wanted to endorse him is my realization of how much we need him,” Ashford, who said she is voting for Harris in the presidential election, told the Washington Examiner. “What you have to look at is the person and their accomplishments and what they can do for your district first, and the country second. And Don has that.”
Still, Bacon must contend with the reputation of some of his House colleagues on the far Right who are known for rebelling against GOP leadership and voting against several key pieces of legislation. That’s led to Republican leaders relying on Democratic votes and accusations the GOP can’t lead the chamber on its own.
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“Don Bacon and the rest of the Republicans in leadership … can’t get things done,” Vargas said. “They can’t lead on the most urgent issues when they have an opportunity to. They fail to actually address issues of border security, and they can’t actually get anything done without Democrats coming across the aisle to work on things.”
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Bacon and other GOP lawmakers pushed back on that characterization, arguing the blame lies with both parties in both chambers.
“It’s not just House Republicans, it’s Senate Democrats, it’s House Democrats, it’s Senate Republicans, it’s everybody,” Gonzales told the Washington Examiner at a campaign event for Bacon on Wednesday. “It’s not necessarily one member’s fault, if you will, but you need to have more members that actually want to solve problems … Don Bacon is the guy that genuinely wants to solve problems.”