House Republicans could see a shakeup in party leadership after the 2024 elections depending on which party wins the House majority and which presidential candidate claims the White House.
Republicans are set to hold their leadership elections on Nov. 13 to choose the highest-ranking members of their conference, a source familiar confirmed to the Washington Examiner. The House is then expected to finalize its party rules for the next Congress two days later.
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The intraparty election will come just one week after the 2024 election, when House races could be undecided and control of the White House could still be contested. However, it sets the stage for a possible leadership shakeup depending on whether Republicans maintain their majority or must readjust to the minority.
Here are the major players to keep an eye on during the leadership scramble:
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA)
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has repeatedly expressed his intent to remain in leadership, noting he plans to remain speaker for as long as he can — and there are several factors at play that could determine whether he keeps the top leadership position.
One of Johnson’s strongest advantages is the support of former President Donald Trump, who has praised the speaker’s leadership and has said he expects him “to be around for a long time.” That’s good news for Johnson if Republicans keep their majority and he attempts to run for speaker next year as Trump’s endorsement may be the boost he needs to garner support from the entire party.
However, that could be easier said than done. At least two House Republicans, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY), have vowed not to support a future speakership bid from Johnson — which could spell trouble if Republicans have a similarly slim majority come next January.
“I think it would take Trump’s endorsement to do that,” Massie told the Washington Examiner in September of Johnson’s chances to be reelected as speaker. “So, I expect Mike to spend a lot of time with Trump.”
Of course, Johnson’s future in leadership could become even murkier if Republicans lose their majority. If that happens, Johnson will be faced with the prospect of whether he wants to run for minority leader, putting him at odds with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), who is currently the party’s No. 2 leader.
Johnson has not indicated whether he would run for a leadership position if Republicans lose their majority, telling reporters last month he would “cross that bridge when we come to it.” Instead, Johnson has said his focus at the moment is defending the House.
But should he run for a leadership position, Johnson has proven himself to be a strong campaigner and prolific fundraiser.
Johnson raised $27.5 million between July 1 and Sept. 30, including more than $19.4 million for his committees and another $8.1 million for individual members and candidates. That’s the most money a Republican speaker has ever raised in the third quarter of a presidential election year, according to the speaker’s office.
He’s also traveled to more than 210 cities across 40 states to campaign for GOP incumbents and candidates, with 24 states in October alone.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA)
That leaves Scalise in a unique position as the Louisiana Republican has held the second-highest position in the House GOP conference for the last five years. That would put him next in line for the speakership if Johnson couldn’t get the support needed or decided to bow out of the race.
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Scalise has not indicated his plans for leadership elections, but the majority leader has not shied away from challenges in the past. Shortly after Kevin McCarthy was ousted as speaker last year, Scalise was the first nominee to replace him. He later dropped his bid due to opposition from some GOP lawmakers.
However, Scalise has positioned himself as a top fundraiser and campaign surrogate during the 2024 cycle, which could strengthen his case among GOP lawmakers.
Scalise has raised $70 million during the 2024 cycle, giving $15 million to the House GOP campaign arm and another $10.4 million to individual candidates. The majority leader has also traversed across the campaign travel, appearing alongside candidates at 66 events across 28 states in October alone.
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN)
Also in the mix is Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), who is likely to run again for leadership as the party’s whip, a position he took on when Republicans won the majority last year.
Before that, Emmer served as the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, making him no stranger to party fundraising and party leadership. The Minnesota Republican even ventured a run for speaker after McCarthy’s ouster but later suspended his candidacy due to public opposition from Trump.
However, that relationship has since mended as the two have appeared alongside each other at fundraisers and other events, which could give Emmer a boost in any leadership bid he chooses to put forward.
House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY)
One question mark about GOP leadership is the position currently held by House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) — which could very well depend on whichever party wins the majority.
Stefanik assumed the fourth-highest ranking position in May 2021, quickly establishing herself as a staunch and close Trump ally. It’s that loyalty to the former president that put Stefanik on his initial short list for vice presidential contenders and could determine whether she remains in House GOP leadership.
Stefanik’s name has circulated among Trump’s inner circles for a position in a possible Trump administration, meaning she could be elevated to the White House and abstain from another term in the House.
Stefanik is considered a contender for attorney general, secretary of education, director of national intelligence, ambassador to the United Nations, or Trump’s chief of staff, according to sources familiar with the conversation.
Stefanik has repeatedly said she would “be honored to serve in the Trump administration in any capacity,” but she has not provided details of any personal conversations with the former president.
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH)
Among some of the new names being circulated for a possible leadership position is Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), who has become a prominent House Republican due to his work as the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.
In that position, Jordan has helped lead the high-profile investigation into President Joe Biden’s family, particularly his son Hunter, and alleged instances of abuse of power. Meanwhile, Jordan made a bid for the speakership last year, although he suspended his candidacy when he failed to secure the gavel after three rounds of voting on the floor.
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But Jordan has also raised eyebrows with his recent fundraising efforts. The Ohio Republican transferred more than $500,000 to the National Republican Congressional Committee in October despite previously avoiding giving money to the House GOP’s main fundraising arm.
That sum brings Jordan’s total transfer to the NRCC to $2.5 million this cycle, according to a spokesperson.